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xelan May 6
This is the most accurate graph I've seen showing that housing bubble started around 2015 but not 10 years ago like many people say. All those people forget to consider changes in interest rates which this graph includes. MPPI is king.
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xelan
I desided to post my graph I created back in 2017 which convinced me that properties are overvalued and contributed to decision of selling my house. It's easier to read than MPPI(which is built around the same idea of monthly payments) but I don't guarantee 100% accuracy.
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Scott Ingram CPA, CA May 13
Replying to @xelan_gta
You're saying "house" - are you meaning "property"? That is, are you using TREB's overall average sold price (which is a mixture of 416 and 905, and a mixture of condos and houses)? Note that for 416, condos are now ~60% of transactions. Twenty years ago they were ~35%.
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xelan May 13
Replying to @areacode416
Scott, TREB overall yearly average sold price is used for all GTA properties. Median would be better but I don’t have it. It doesn’t really matter how composition or quality of properties is changing over time, i’ll explain it in one of the future tweets.
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Scott Ingram CPA, CA May 13
Replying to @xelan_gta
I respectfully disagree with your assertion that composition doesn't matter. Will see what you say later on it.
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xelan May 13
Replying to @areacode416
I like how you disagreed even before listening:) No problem at all, I know we have different views sometimes and that's OK. The tweet I mentioned previously will not be dedicated directly to composition therefore for now I have a quick puzzle for you:
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Scott Ingram CPA, CA May 13
Replying to @xelan_gta
Because I've given it thought before :) On your puzzle, you might as well give the people unicorns for pets too, because the isolation example would never happen. Maybe Antarctica, though? But if you want me to guess where you're going, you're tying it to incomes.
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xelan May 13
Replying to @areacode416
I find it very useful to isolate 1 factor and see how changes in it affects the picture. If you try to analyze real world with all factors at the same time you will never find answers. Yes, ave. price only depends on buyers' total money spent and number of sales. Nothing else.
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Scott Ingram CPA, CA May 13
Replying to @xelan_gta
Thank you for explaining how average price works to me.
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Barry Fence May 14
Replying to @xelan_gta
Nice work, Xelan! Very interesting.
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dtman May 14
Replying to @areacode416 @xelan_gta
Regardless of spin, the graph paints a pretty accurate and dire picture of where the market is and likely will be in the months and years henceforth....
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