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Hugh Whelan
The Covid crisis is hard to see in FL's historical deaths from all causes data. Monthly deaths from all causes have risen over time because population has grown. Even looking at death rate, however, there is an upward trend that is probably related to the increase in..
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Hugh Whelan Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1
...the average age of FL's population. Also notice that there are lower troughs and a lower peak in death rate around 2019 that suggest higher death rates in 2020 may be "catching up" for a mild prior period. If you "de-trend" the rates to correct for an aging population..
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Hugh Whelan Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1
...you can see both periods of true "excess" and "below normal" death rates. As stated at the outset, the Covid crisis is not remarkable in this historical data series. FL death data can be found here: ?
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Hugh Whelan Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1
I should have stated the last graph are the residuals from the trend in 12 month rolling average death rates.
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Immortan Joe Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1
So you're saying if we had no knowledge of COVID-19, Florida's 2020 mortality would be unremarkable? Even with COVID it appears so.
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Hugh Whelan Aug 1
Replying to @ntldr2020
Yes, it would like an "on-trend" year with modest catch up for a milder than average 2019.
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Joe Sanders Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1 @justin_hart
*impossible to see “Crisis” is a bit much as well
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Sojourner for now Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1 @justin_hart
People just don't"get" excess deaths as an essential piece of data to factor into fully understanding covid impact is they did, their panic would evaporate.
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Sojourner for now Aug 1
Replying to @whelanh1 @justin_hart
From a Nobel laureate in the field, I hazard a guess he knows what he's taking about ... How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week....
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No Problem ☀️ Aug 1
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Arthur, The Tick's Sidekick Aug 1
Replying to @venivici27 @whelanh1
That was the ah-ha moment for me... the increase in population year over year... more people, more deaths. Even if the % was a little higher this year, it isn't close to a pandemic worthy of killing the economy.
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