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@wfrhatch | |||||
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The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
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Mary Pat Campbell
@meepbobeep
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20. sij |
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over what time horizon?
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Warren Hatch
@wfrhatch
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20. sij |
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Alas, the @wef folks didn't include a time horizon or other details like that.
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David Fisher
@fisherdbus
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20. sij |
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You do not specify in what time frame.
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Warren Hatch
@wfrhatch
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20. sij |
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An excellent point. There should be a date. And a clear threshold to resolve the question. @Davos didn't supply those kinds of details, so we just have to use our best judgment given the context. It'd be great if the experts there provided needed specificity and we could relaunch
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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20. sij |
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You need another possible answer: "All of the above, like Schrodinger's cat."
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John Carlos Baez
@johncarlosbaez
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21. sij |
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The probability that insurance will be unaffordable or unavailable to *someone*? To a *randomly chosen* would-be purchaser of insurance? To *everyone*?
I guess the 2nd one is the most plausible interpretation.
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KMorrell
@morrellkc
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21. sij |
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Needs end date, spatial limits, a definition of what type of insurance (does state-provided catastrophic insurance count when no commercial insurance is available?), and some sort of definition of unaffordable.
Commercial ins. already difficult in some places
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Brett Bowman
@BioInfoBrett
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20. sij |
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An excellent question for predictions, but should probably be a little narrower for easier testing. I'd suggest: Repeat this question a few times for various at-risk areas (i.e. California fire country & Florida Hurricane country) and various time-frames (5/10/15 yrs)
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Andrew Conway
@AndrewConway
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20. sij |
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It depends where you live. Insurance is getting pretty expensive in hurricane zones.
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Harriet
@Harriet35929613
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21. sij |
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Is there a definition of unaffordable? How big percentage of population is required to stop paying insurace?
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