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Warren Hatch
The new Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some rigor. What's the implied probability of: "More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
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Mary Pat Campbell 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @superforecaster i 3 ostali
over what time horizon?
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Warren Hatch 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @meepbobeep @superforecaster i 4 ostali
Alas, the folks didn't include a time horizon or other details like that.
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David Fisher 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @Davos i 3 ostali
You do not specify in what time frame.
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Warren Hatch 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @fisherdbus @Davos i 3 ostali
An excellent point. There should be a date. And a clear threshold to resolve the question. didn't supply those kinds of details, so we just have to use our best judgment given the context. It'd be great if the experts there provided needed specificity and we could relaunch
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Dan Gardner 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @Davos i 2 ostali
You need another possible answer: "All of the above, like Schrodinger's cat."
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John Carlos Baez 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i 4 ostali
The probability that insurance will be unaffordable or unavailable to *someone*? To a *randomly chosen* would-be purchaser of insurance? To *everyone*? I guess the 2nd one is the most plausible interpretation.
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KMorrell 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @Davos i 3 ostali
Needs end date, spatial limits, a definition of what type of insurance (does state-provided catastrophic insurance count when no commercial insurance is available?), and some sort of definition of unaffordable. Commercial ins. already difficult in some places
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Brett Bowman 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i 4 ostali
An excellent question for predictions, but should probably be a little narrower for easier testing. I'd suggest: Repeat this question a few times for various at-risk areas (i.e. California fire country & Florida Hurricane country) and various time-frames (5/10/15 yrs)
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Andrew Conway 20. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i 4 ostali
It depends where you live. Insurance is getting pretty expensive in hurricane zones.
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Harriet 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @wfrhatch @ESYudkowsky i 4 ostali
Is there a definition of unaffordable? How big percentage of population is required to stop paying insurace?
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