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Trevor Bedford
Combined modeling of Wuhan incidence with travel cases by et al. A couple things I particularly like here: 1. Data that the model is being fit to is clearly shown 2. R0 and mobility are not treated as constants
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Terry Lerona 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
any reason(s) to think that transmission rates outside of China would be different (higher or lower) than those observed in Wuhan?
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Adam Kucharski 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @TerryLerona @trvrb
Expect there could be quite a bit of difference. With intense contact tracing and testing (as happened in Germany), transmission may well be lower. Conversely, in countries with limited health capacity, it could be higher.
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nobsan 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
予測されたモデル(図1D)よりも武漢との関連性が確認された症例が米国オーストラリアフランスで報告されています。1月下旬に2019-nCoVの認識が高まったため監視と検出が増加した結果である可能性があります。また1月23日に渡航制限が導入される直前の武漢からの渡航の増加の結果である場合があります
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nobsan 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
1月23日に渡航制限が導入されるまで、有効な繁殖数の中央値Rは1.6〜2.9の間で変動していたと推定されました(図1F)
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nobsan 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
旅行制限が導入される前の1月に観察された繁殖数の中央値に基づいてSARSまたはMERSに類似した個人レベルの伝送の2019-nCoVを1回導入すると20-28%の確率で発生すると推定されました大発生(図2A)
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David States 2. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski i 2 ostali
Is there any evidence for selection, e.g. new variants with increasing R0/prevalence? Lots of cases of human to human transmission so wouldn’t be unexpected, but obviously many statistical challenges in establishing with confidence
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nobsan 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
SARSのような変化と武漢のような伝播を想定すると、3つ以上の感染が新しい場所に導入されると、50%を超えるアウトブレイクが発生する可能性があります(図2B)
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Rémy Crochet 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @trvrb @AdamJKucharski
2.9 days for the days of infections isn't underestimated ? It seem that during incubation you can be infectious ?
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