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Trinh Nguyen
@
Trinhnomics
Hong Kong
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Senior economist for emerging Asia @natixis; Nonresident scholar for the Asia Program @carnegieEndow; Views are all mine and you are free to use/like/rt.
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9.297
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624
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30.680
Osobe koje vas prate
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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2 h |
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Nice nice! I'm there 2nd wk of March. Hoping they don't stop HK from flying to Tokyo & derail my spring ski 🤞🏻🤞🏻🤞🏻
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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Well, hardware w/o adequate software.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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I'm gonna go on a limb & say Trump & maybe Mike Bloomberg. Haha
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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Well, she makes money selling all sorts of stuff people don't need like body makeup & other junk like emojis. Not bad.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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Somebody wants Bernie. He got 10 million followers dude.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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If they deny him of this, well, what are they going to do?
His supporters are going to swing to Warren? Biden?
No, they will stay home!!! They don't like Trump either so they will stay home like they did in 2016, which is what Trump would want.
Dejavu!!!
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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I'm going on a whim here & say I predicted this. I mean, they like Elizabeth Warren & Biden, both totally unlikeable. I mean, I like Elizabeth for her eloquence but her policies are a hard sell. Biden is not change. People want change. Bernie is what people wanted in 2016 & 2020.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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Headline from Bloomberg says Iowa Caucuses running into chaos as Iowa Democratic Party postpone results.
I kid u not. They don't like the results so now they're going after 'inconsistencies' in count. I mean. How about writing a book on HOW TO GET PEOPLE TO STAY AT HOME IN 2020?
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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4 h |
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Haha, another example why anyone but the Democrats can win vs Trump. So, if they don't give it to Bernie, who they don't like (NYT hates Bernie), the people will revolt by staying home like they did in 2016.
Fun stuff. I like a train wreck & this is one happening as we speak.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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Well, likely that the results not what they want (e.g. Bernie) & so this is pretty bad as it may motivate a bunch of people to sit at home November 2020.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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Well, India is even more immune from this as it exports very little to China as a share of GDP & also doesn't benefit much from Chinese tourism so if that is what you meant!
Yep, India is also inwardly driven so less affected!!!
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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Indonesia shines brightly in this virus scare situation as:
a) Exports as a share of GDP low & so exports to China also low (exposure via commodity but not too big as exports small)
b) Tourism also smaller vs say Thailand.
So inwardly driven Indonesia more IMMUNE! True story!
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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So when China catches a FLU (this case a pretty nasty one that is highly infectious), then who catches the cold???
Well, well, well, the usual suspect of course, such as AUD, KRW, THB!!!
MYR too! SGD too but by less!!!
😬🥶😷 🇦🇺🇰🇷🇹🇭
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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AUD very linked to China via commodity prices & those not doing too hot right now w/ China locked down & so demand for it lower; KRW for obvs reason of China being its numero uno customer; THB for its tourism exposure as a share of GDP (China trade too) pic.twitter.com/MgLGdz5DA9
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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5 h |
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And the winner of the virus is: JPY for FX but others like PHP, IDR, VND and IDR not doing tooo badly.
Btw, did you know that IDR is the best Asian FX ytd!!! +1.1% vs USD while AUD is -4.2% vs USD.
Meaning, IDR/AUD is even better!!
Losers of the virus is KRW, AUD, THBT & CNY! twitter.com/Trinhnomics/st… pic.twitter.com/JUvbCtcuVL
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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7 h |
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Thailand growth has been stuck in low gear for some time now & because of weak private investment & I wonder why.
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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8 h |
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Sure, if u're convinced then buy the dip :-) Your reward, your risk 🤗
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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9 h |
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Facts on SARs & #coronavirus :
* SARs TOTAL deaths in mainland 348 vs 425 by 3 Feb 2020 of coronavirus; if the rate of death slows, we'll double SARs by the end of this wk alone;
*SARs mainland infected total was 5,327 vs 20,438 on 3 Feb 2020 for corona or roughly 4 times that!
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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8 h |
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Read my other tweets
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Trinh Nguyen
@Trinhnomics
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8 h |
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Yes, and that is not good news as the economy is under lock-down/self-quarantine.
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