Twitter | Search | |
This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on 15 December 2020. Please switch to a supported browser or device. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Good morning! While you were (hopefully) sleeping, Joe Biden took the lead in Georgia, and now has a margin of 1,096 votes over Donald Trump. There should be a bit under 10k votes remaining to be reported. Any military ballots received by 5PM today will also be counted.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
A follow up note - from what GA has reported, both military and overseas ballots can be received until 5PM today, but it is not the case that those received already have not been counted, for the most part. So the expectation is this does not represent a large number of votes.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
We'll see where this ends up, on Wednesday I predicted Biden would end up with a lead of about 5k votes, that seems in play but may be closer to the 3,500-4,000 range.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @staceyabrams @gwlauren
Democrats should ask and how they turned Georgia blue in this race, and truly listen to the answer. And yes, as they will tell you, this was the work of a lot of people, work that started years ago.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier
Later on I'll share more thoughts on what the data shows as to the flipping of Georgia, but I'll add one high level note now - for those suggesting BLM cost Democrats seats, the movement had 13 pt net favorability in Georgia, and Biden won among those voters by landslide margins.
Reply Retweet Like More
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
And for those pointing out that Dems may have lost some House seats in conservative districts, at least in part due to BLM: If you define your party based on what you think might work in one district in Oklahoma, you're doing it wrong.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
One more note. In May and June, when Dem voter registration had bottomed out due to the pandemic and GOPs were outregistering Dems, it was the George Floyd/BLM demonstrations that created a huge Dem voter reg spike.
Reply Retweet Like
Tom Bonier Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
For those who are interested, this was an early study we released relevant to this subject:
Reply Retweet Like
Deja Nov 6
Replying to @j_lovelac @tbonier
They can
Reply Retweet Like
FPL Mario Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
How are you feeling NC will go?
Reply Retweet Like
Keith Grant Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
There are 4,500 votes left in Gwinnett County(Atlanta suburb). Voters have been voting for Joe in this County at a 65/35% clip. & this is a conservative estimate b/c mail-in ballots have been a higher percentage than election day results. Joe will probably win 70% of these votes.
Reply Retweet Like
Le’Trell⚖️ Nov 6
Replying to @tbonier
not BLM but “Defund the Police”
Reply Retweet Like
Thomas Wolfe Nov 6
Replying to @LeTrell824 @tbonier
Exactly. BLM was polling well nationally after Floyd. "Defund" deflated it. People were finally coming around to BLM then defund effort seemed back up every lie the right told. It's not the idea, it's the messaging. If you have to explain, you've already lost.
Reply Retweet Like
KRL 🇺🇸 Nov 6
Replying to @uberzealot @tbonier
God, I hope so. But looks like a long shot.
Reply Retweet Like