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Craig Ceecee Jul 9
The computer models are now in two camps on . Many of them bring it into SE Louisiana as a fairly weak (but rain-laden) storm. Others push it farther west towards SW Louisiana or SE Texas as a strong storm or hurricane. NHC will have a field day with their first track!
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Dylan Federico Jul 10
WOW! MASSIVE flooding occurring in downtown New Orleans. 6 inches of rain has fallen in an hour. (Radar Estimate) 🌀💦⛈🌊 VIDEO CREDIT🎥📸: Hank Gebhardt
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Dylan Federico Jul 10
WOW! Incredible close up of the waterspout on Lake Pontchartrain this morning! From New Orleans Lakefront! 🌪🌀 PHOTO CREDIT 📸: Amber Lytle
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Brian McNoldy Jul 9
This map shows previous named storms that formed in the GoM during July since 1900. Strongest one was in 1943: the “Surprise Hurricane". It intensified to Cat2 hurricane as the first-ever reconnaissance flight into a hurricane took place!
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Frank's Weather Jul 9
The NHC has upgraded the chance of development for Invest to 90% over 2 days and 90% over 5 days. This means a tropical cyclone is very likely to develop within the next 48 hours. We could have as soon as tomorrow.
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Josh Morgerman Jul 10
I'm sensing a ISAAC redux. This setup is having that essence. Not one of my more memorable chases. (I remember being in the eye for 7 hours—in a small bayou town called Galliano—chilling out, having coffee, & forgetting I was in a hurricane.)
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Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. Jul 10
Morning all. Track guidance continues to put Louisiana in the crosshairs of . Not pictured here is the Euro which tracks closer to SW Louisiana. Tropical storm likely to form, a hurricane is still possible. Time to ramp up preps.
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Brennan Prill ⚡︎ Jul 10
: FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY in New Orleans, Gretna, Arabi and Lakefront Airport. Per the NWS — 5 to 6” of rain has already fallen with numerous streets and underpasses severely flooded. Video by redfeather31 via IG.
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MotherEarthIsPissed Jul 10
Folks you need to leave the area. That’s it. Evacuate!
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TJ Jul 9
Invest is bubbling with convection and is currently in the transition phases of becoming a warm core TC. Should be interesting to see if the diurnal maximum helps w/ vortex realignment and consolidation. is in progress.
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Michael Ventrice Jul 10
Southern Louisiana is getting crushed by strong convection associated with invest . Reports of flooded streets in this AM.
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Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. Jul 10
The Hurricane Hunters have now departed Keesler AFB in Biloxi and will give us a better look at what is happening with this afternoon.
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Eric Holthaus Jul 9
UPDATE: Latest (18Z) GFS shows 1-2 feet of rainfall over southern Louisiana from /. This is quickly becoming a near worst-case scenario for river flooding in New Orleans.
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Steve Bowen Jul 9
Staying vigilant to any potential storm in a very warm Gulf of Mexico is key, but still too much media & online focus only on potential wind speed of . Larger risk: Heavy rains in an area where the Mississippi River & tributaries remain very elevated.
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NikhilTri Jul 9
While I think the HWRF is overdoing intensity, I strongly agree with most of it. It shows having a lot of trouble vertically stacking, but once that happens, rapid intensification ensues. I also agree with it's more westward landfall than other models
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Eric Berger Jul 8
You have questions, and we have some answers. Here's an honest assessment of where we are this evening regarding /future for , including notes on track, intensity, rain, historical analogs (image), and more. Please have a read. -Matt
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Jim Cantore Jul 8
Long term project this week is invest . Not any confidence in details. What's currently a barely definable low over central GA will meander into the GOM this week. Guidance & slow evolution scream rainmaker, but worth watching will be light steering & very warm GOM water.
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Steve Copertino Jul 9
12z UKMET seems to be a bit...bullish with Have to see if the ECMWF adjusts to a stronger solution like most global models have this afternoon.
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Steve Copertino Jul 9
You'll probably see a ton of 18z HWRF images over the next few hours, but the overall evolution really isn't *too* insane given the gradual development early on. However, a vertically stacked system passing over 31C SSTs would certainly require attention
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Empire Weather LLC Jul 10
Latest recon data shows two pronounced wind shifts within the broad circulation of . The overall track and intensity of this system will be highly dependent on which one of these circulations becomes dominant. Expect further model uncertainty until this organizes more!
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