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Sarah O'Connor
Quite a few people are looking at this chart by and asking "what went right in Merthyr Tydfil?" It's a really good question and I don't know the answer. Anyone else?
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X Soviet Nov 16
Merthyr Tydfil doesn't do well according to this analysis.
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John Burn-Murdoch Nov 16
Replying to @sarahoconnor_
One theme I came across a few times is a big focus on regeneration of urban spaces [], whose impact I can vouch for in my home-town of Doncaster, too
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Chaminda Jayanetti Nov 16
The ex-miners reached retirement age and fell out of the working age data
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Declan Gaffney Nov 16
Rates of IB receipt among older groups, esp. male, hit extraordinary peaks in deindustrialisaing areas in 1990s then fell dramatically, mainly due to ageing out of earlier cohort. Similar in north, Scotland.
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Declan Gaffney Nov 16
iirc there is also a modest but under-reported positive employment growth story in Merthyr mainly based on commuting.
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Charles Boutaud Nov 16
Maybe will have more insights on this?
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Declan Gaffney Nov 16
If interested, Work & Pensions Longitudinal Study (Nomis) allows decomposition of IB/ESA receipt by age/gender from late 90s
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John Burn-Murdoch Nov 16
Thanks!
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Claire Miller Nov 16
Yes, there does seem to have been a move towards the Valleys essentially becoming the commuter belt for Cardiff (see also South Wales Metro):
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John Burn-Murdoch Nov 16
Thanks Claire :-)
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Simon Jones Nov 16
This article implies it's a) harsher DWP assessments and b)ex-miners reaching retirement age or dying
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Simon Landau Nov 16
And I note Chesterfield job growth much higher than Sheffield - part of same story I suspect.
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Simon Landau Nov 16
And note proximity of Sports Direct Shirecliffe to Chesterfield (same travel to work area)
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Declan Gaffney Nov 16
Unfortunately such national media coverage as there is still defaults to treating Merthyr as a sort of Brigadoon of deindustrialisation where nothing ever changes.
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Bill Wells Nov 16
Nos on IB/ESA largely driven by LT claimants. LT claimants build up when ben becomes indefinite & no continuous 'activation' contact between state & (LT) individual. MT built up in 1980s abolished (by mistake) sickness benefit for non-employees so only IVB/IB (indefinite) left
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John Burn-Murdoch Nov 16
Interesting, thanks! Great examples of why adjusting for cohort effects is so important.
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Declan Gaffney Nov 16
Yeah, aggregated disability benefit receipt needs to be treated with great caution. Even w'out cohort effects there are big age composition effects.
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Bill Wells Nov 16
MT cohort built up IVB duration but eventually passed into state pension age & nos 'improved'.For B'pool inflow to IVB/ESA now much higher than MT as on a 'Hotel California' benefit. MT/B'pool comparison local eg of national change in compositions of IVB/ESA - was old. Now young
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