I’m confused..wouldnt this be fantastic news? Completely craters the case fatality rate? This is an honest question..
Unnerving: Actual #COVID19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher than official estimates, CDC study shows https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/21/cdc-study-actual-covid-19-cases/ … via @statnews @DrewQJoseph
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Yeah, that was my first thought.
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Over the threshold? How do you figure. The estimate is 60-70% The report is based on old data. Testing rates have increased a lot since this data was collected. So expect that multiplying factor to drop since testing is catching more cases that were previously missed.
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Why is this unnerving? That means it is not as dangerous as feared once infected if all of those 6-24X higher cases were asymptomatic and the death rate is 6-24X LOWER than believed. That is VERY good news.
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What it would really make the case for is masks. Means super spreadability and it still packs a wicked punch with death as a consequence. But we are leaning that those damaged, lung and other organs is significant.
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So, we can safely say that there are about 30 millions infected people in the US?
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No you cant because all of this is finger in the air. Any hard blood studies have shown max 25% jn hardest hit areas. Fact is we dont know. Even at 30% likely halfway, at best to herd immunity. But > contagiousness, R0, means higher % needed for herd so maybe 1/3
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Which means the death count is also hidden and under reported. All those extra deaths (year over year) WERE NOT from cramps and migraines.
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Isn't that a good thing?
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