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Ramez Naam
Books: Nexus Series / The Infinite Resource. Faculty . Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist.
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Ramez Naam proslijedio/la je tweet
Brian Schatz 15 h
Is there any solid reason to be against ranked choice voting? I’m honestly asking.
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @ecotone2 @leahstokes @BernieSanders
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @tracyalloway
Outstanding.
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @posamentier
Yeah. I'd be awfully frightened to invest in something that assumes NIMBY will be overcome. (Sadly.)
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Ramez Naam proslijedio/la je tweet
Django Wexler 4. velj
I think it's time to post this comic again...
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @leahstokes @BernieSanders
I wish I thought Bernie was right. But polling data paints a picture of climate not being a very high priority among voters overall. (e.g. ) IMHO, the Democrat nominee needs to win on other issues, then use the Presidency to act on climate.
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NRG_Wonk @alannogee i 27 ostali
Alternate formulation: BAU is a world where cost/performance trends of RE, storage, & EVs continue. That's not certain, or fast enough. It doesn't include steel, cement, aviation, deforestation, etc. Yet it's what Bayes would tell us the no-new-policy future looks like. 3/3
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NRG_Wonk @alannogee i 27 ostali
By "on path" I mean: "If multi-decade trends in cost & performance of solar, wind, & batteries continue for another 1-2 decades" this decarbonization of electricity & ground transport is likely. Does policy affect this? Absolutely. Should we be complacent? Absolutely not. 2/3
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NRG_Wonk @alannogee i 27 ostali
Not all energy usage is on path to decarbonize. That said: The bulk of electricity (incl almost all coal) and the bulk of ground transport are currently on path to decarbonize, even in absence of any new policy. That's not enough, or fast enough. But it's also not to be ignored.
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
"61% of Iowa Democratic Caucus participants prefer a candidate who can beat Trump over one they agree with on the issues." Only 61%???
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @pauleastwd
This needs updating but may help:
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Ramez Naam 4. velj
Amen. No other methodology has been so effective at forecasting the future cost of clean energy. It's amazing how official energy forecasters keep missing this.
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @rustneversleepz @alannogee i 27 ostali
1) Yes, a learning rate. Every doubling of RE, storage, & EVs drives ~same % cost decline. 2) RE & EVs still v. small. Several doublings left. 3) Decline of fossil fuels won't be a consistent %/year. Closer to a linear decline, meaning highest % at first. See US coal decline.
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @theresphysics @jgkoomey i 27 ostali
Yes. Getting to net zero by 2100 still requires policy and/or technology progress current RE & EV cost trends. We need to deal with ag, land use, industrial emissions, and aviation. Those ought to be elevated in policy & R&D priorities, as I argued here:
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @jgkoomey @hausfath i 27 ostali
Indeed, RE & EV costs paint IEA WEO SPS as unlikely. IEA has consistently over-estimated coal demand & under-estimated solar, storage, & EVs for past 10-20 years. The IEA WEO that Zeke, Glen, & Justin used in forecasting a ~3C world itself is likely an over-estimate of emissions.
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @jgkoomey @hausfath i 27 ostali
My POV on this discussion: A key input is long-term price decline of renewables & EVs. Projecting those trends forward may not be "science", but it is a bayesian way of looking at the world. And if those trends continue, they paint RCP 8.5 as incredibly unlikely. 1/2
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @PrinceJvstin
Thanks, Paul!
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Ramez Naam 3. velj
I made the case to BBC that coal is dead, and will decline far faster than IEA forecasts. Always great to chat with .
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Ramez Naam proslijedio/la je tweet
Charlie Jane Anders (pls subscribe to @OOACpod!) 1. velj
Q: If Ayn Rand opened a bedding store what would she call it? A: Mattress Shrugged.
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Ramez Naam 1. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @ecoStu_ @ShaneSkelton i 9 ostali
My top local (blue city) policies: 1. Phase out fossil fuel vehicles in city centers & suburbs. 2. Housing density policies: Upzone residential zoning, etc.. 3. Vehicle congestion pricing based on vehicle footprint (encourage high density of humans per vehicle square foot).
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