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Ramez Naam
Books: Nexus Series / The Infinite Resource. Faculty . Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist.
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Ramez Naam retweeted
Tyler Norris 3h
Who are the rising stars in US energy/climate policy under 30 these days, ? Forbes 30 Under 30 is seeking nominations from past recipients and I'd love to recommend a few folks. Looking at , Gen, other fellowship programs. Feel free to DM me!
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Astounding price. 5 US cents / kwh, for a capacity factor likely > 50%. This is just over half the price that the IEA thought offshore wind reach by *2050* just a couple years ago. Offshore wind is on path to be both cheaper and higher capacity factor than onshore.
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Ramez Naam retweeted
Robert Wilson Jun 22
An animation showing births and child deaths in Africa over the last century
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
And EuroStat has it by country for Europe: (Select Wind in the SIEC box on the upper left).
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
BP Statistical Review of World Energy has the data. There's a graph that's almost what one would want in the Renewables 2019 Slidepack. EIA has data series for the US:
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Yes. It does cause problems. And weather varies from year to year. Even so, MWs understates the growth TWHs, or MWs x expected capacity factors of turbines added that year is a more accurate way to look at wind power growth.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Am I? I thought I answered your question. I'd add policy rollbacks as one more factor. Point of the RMI paper is that even with variability and seasonality, combinations of wind, solar, storage are on path to be cheaper than coal and gas. That's important for the future.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
One more thing: you should really chart growth of wind power in electricity generated (TWh) rather than MWs added. These new turbines (especially offshore) have much higher capacity factors than old ones. Looking at MWs understates the growth.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Here's the RMI work. And honestly, I think it's conservative on the cost declines. Particularly storage, which I believe will come down in price far faster than almost any forecast.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Honestly, it's just difficult to get at these value numbers, and to explain within a twet. That said, look at RMI's work on the falling cost of portfolios that combine solar, wind, and storage and match local demand patterns. Something very real and important is happening.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Because value is much harder to calculate. Note that with solar, the opposite is true. In most places outside Europe, solar's value is greater than is evident from price alone, as it peaks at high demand hours and months.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Yes. LCOE is not the same as value, or the ability to deliver energy. Intermittency, peaking when demand is lowest, and transmission land-rights / political barriers all problems for wind. That said, they're not insurmountable, and I expect growth to resume in coming years.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Exponential growth of capacity was always going to end at some point. In retrospect I focused too much on that in my earlier writings. That said, exponential price declines as a function of scale (the learning curve / Wright's Law) appear to continue. And that does matter.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
While wind is often the cheapest electricity: 1) It peaks at night and in winter, which is usually when demand is lowest. 2) Best onshore wind sites are often far from electricity load, and transmission is hard to build. Cheap storage will help with 1. Offshore with 2.
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Ramez Naam Jun 23
Replying to @NaFun
Well, it's definitely a lot easier with democrats in control! And we definitely need a lot more interstate transmission.
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Ramez Naam Jun 21
Replying to @mcannonbrookes
I love it!
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Ramez Naam Jun 21
Replying to @DrChrisClack @tomasoc
My expectation is US offshore prices will come down quickly. $85/MWH is actually pretty impressive for the first real large-scale project in the US. I expect to see US auctions at $60/MWH and then lower within a couple years. And higher capacity factor = higher value.
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Ramez Naam retweeted
Dr. Jonathan Foley Jun 20
This is very good news for the environment, and I suspect population growth will decline even faster in the coming years. (Plus, some demographers I talk to think the official UN projections are still too high.)
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Ramez Naam retweeted
James Melville Jun 20
Britain is a country where a new Prime Minister will be chosen by 0.3% of the electorate, to form a government that doesn’t have a majority, in a party that is at 20% in the polls, to try and deliver something that the majority of the country does not want.
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Ramez Naam Jun 20
Replying to @EuphoricEuler
Yeah. All these states like CA, WA, NY, CO passing big new climate policies. That's partially a response to Trump. And partially made possible by state legislative wins in the 2018 rebound from Trump.
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