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@
ramez
Seattle
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Books: Nexus Series / The Infinite Resource. Faculty @SingularityU. Energy, climate, & innovation wonk. Optimist.
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37.363
Tweetovi
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4.783
Pratim
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36.666
Osobe koje vas prate
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Brian Schatz
@brianschatz
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Is there any solid reason to be against ranked choice voting? I’m honestly asking.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Page not found.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Outstanding.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Yeah. I'd be awfully frightened to invest in something that assumes NIMBY will be overcome. (Sadly.)
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Django Wexler
@DjangoWexler
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4. velj |
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I think it's time to post this @xkcd comic again... pic.twitter.com/d00M8slASN
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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I wish I thought Bernie was right. But polling data paints a picture of climate not being a very high priority among voters overall. (e.g. climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/c…) IMHO, the Democrat nominee needs to win on other issues, then use the Presidency to act on climate.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Alternate formulation: BAU is a world where cost/performance trends of RE, storage, & EVs continue. That's not certain, or fast enough. It doesn't include steel, cement, aviation, deforestation, etc. Yet it's what Bayes would tell us the no-new-policy future looks like. 3/3
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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By "on path" I mean: "If multi-decade trends in cost & performance of solar, wind, & batteries continue for another 1-2 decades" this decarbonization of electricity & ground transport is likely.
Does policy affect this? Absolutely. Should we be complacent? Absolutely not. 2/3
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Not all energy usage is on path to decarbonize. That said: The bulk of electricity (incl almost all coal) and the bulk of ground transport are currently on path to decarbonize, even in absence of any new policy. That's not enough, or fast enough. But it's also not to be ignored.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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"61% of Iowa Democratic Caucus participants prefer a candidate who can beat Trump over one they agree with on the issues."
Only 61%???
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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This needs updating but may help:
rameznaam.com/2015/08/10/how…
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Amen. No other methodology has been so effective at forecasting the future cost of clean energy. It's amazing how official energy forecasters keep missing this. twitter.com/birsic/status/…
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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1) Yes, a learning rate. Every doubling of RE, storage, & EVs drives ~same % cost decline.
2) RE & EVs still v. small. Several doublings left.
3) Decline of fossil fuels won't be a consistent %/year. Closer to a linear decline, meaning highest % at first. See US coal decline. pic.twitter.com/knZNqHDM4r
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Yes. Getting to net zero by 2100 still requires policy and/or technology progress current RE & EV cost trends. We need to deal with ag, land use, industrial emissions, and aviation. Those ought to be elevated in policy & R&D priorities, as I argued here: techcrunch.com/2019/02/15/how…
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Indeed, RE & EV costs paint IEA WEO SPS as unlikely. IEA has consistently over-estimated coal demand & under-estimated solar, storage, & EVs for past 10-20 years. The IEA WEO that Zeke, Glen, & Justin used in forecasting a ~3C world itself is likely an over-estimate of emissions.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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My POV on this discussion: A key input is long-term price decline of renewables & EVs. Projecting those trends forward may not be "science", but it is a bayesian way of looking at the world. And if those trends continue, they paint RCP 8.5 as incredibly unlikely. 1/2
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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Thanks, Paul!
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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I made the case to BBC that coal is dead, and will decline far faster than IEA forecasts.
Always great to chat with @lhknightbbc. twitter.com/lhknightbbc/st…
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Charlie Jane Anders (pls subscribe to @OOACpod!)
@charliejane
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Q: If Ayn Rand opened a bedding store what would she call it?
A: Mattress Shrugged.
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Ramez Naam
@ramez
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My top local (blue city) policies:
1. Phase out fossil fuel vehicles in city centers & suburbs.
2. Housing density policies: Upzone residential zoning, etc..
3. Vehicle congestion pricing based on vehicle footprint (encourage high density of humans per vehicle square foot).
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