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Philip E. Tetlock
@
PTetlock
Philadelphia, PA
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Annenberg University Professor, Wharton & School of Arts and Sciences (Psychology & Political Science)
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1,499
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216
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24,961
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 29 |
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I'm reasonably confident that Ian's "reasonable confidence" means roughly 60-80%, which is less vague than a lot of vague-verbiage forecasts.
The clearer you make your forecasts, the easier it is to spot mistakes & become better calibrated twitter.com/ianbremmer/sta…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 26 |
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Let’s lock in a mutual-admiration triad: I think very highly of both Tim’s and Matthew’s work. And we are not only complimentary. We are complementary. Read us to discover why @matthewsyed @TimHarford pic.twitter.com/dr0A1zur1i
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Matthew Syed
@matthewsyed
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Jan 25 |
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Totally agree with @TimHarford. It’s a superb book twitter.com/TimHarford/sta…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 23 |
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Feuds between rival methods can be productive. But I see polling & prediction markets as each adding forecasting value. And here is some evidence of how these methods can complement each other:
journal.sjdm.org/18/18919/jdm18… pic.twitter.com/9I7csEgBfD
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 21 |
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This superb article illustrates critical-reasoning skills that are also at the heart of the “superforecasting” research program. We’re all aiming at the same cognitive target:
warontherocks.com/2020/01/the-pi…
@WarOnTheRocks twitter.com/WarOnTheRocks/…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 20 |
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Business as usual at Davos:
1.The higher the status of forecasters, the vaguer their forecasts;
2.The more politicized the topic, the vaguer the forecasts;
3.The higher the stakes, the fewer the chances to learn from big shots' forecasting mistakes twitter.com/wfrhatch/statu…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 16 |
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in that case, it's also "official" that the World Economic Forum needs a remedial course in Research Methods. Correlation doesn't "mean" causality--and that is even true for claims that are pitch perfect for corporate PR purposes. twitter.com/wef/status/121…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 13 |
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Memory lane: my first grad-school publication (1977) & basic finding holds up fairly well. Rising or falling integrative complexity of messaging predicts which crises escalate into violence. Credit: my first mentor, Peter Suedfeld. twitter.com/deepwatrcreatu…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 8 |
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“Superforecasters” did so well in tournaments because our scientific competitors were allergic to the cognitive elitism of tracking above-average people into superteams. Tracking had exactly the inequality-amplifying effect that egalitarians fear tracking in schools will have pic.twitter.com/vGgWuhywmj
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 6 |
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Here’s a robust psychological effect that does not wilt under replication scrutiny. Kurt Lewin noticed it in the 1930s: making public commitments “freezes” attitudes in place. So saying something dumb makes you a bit dumber. It becomes harder to correct yourself. Tweeters beware. pic.twitter.com/cXoujA4VUY
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Jan 2 |
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How to save lives and money: Define forecasting accuracy as skill at achieving both a high Hit rate & low False-Positive rate. It’s trivially easy to claim you can predict every recession, war,… when no one is tracking your False-Positive rate. pic.twitter.com/0j7gPo4Bj0
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 29 |
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We love turning points. Would China have grown faster, slower, or about the same in a world in which the Politburo liberals had prevailed? No one knows for sure but we can be pretty darn sure what current Politburo thinks @ianbremmer twitter.com/ianbremmer/sta…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 29 |
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A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quo twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/s…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 28 |
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Giant oaks from tiny acorns grow—& we still haven’t figured out how to spot which acorns will dominate our future (and we probably never will)
The tweet below nails it twitter.com/notjessewalker…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 22 |
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Very readable article on a very tricky topic: when do we have good grounds for believing something? @briandavidearp twitter.com/briandavidearp…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 21 |
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Vague-verbiage forecasts plant a jumble of probabilities in our minds that easily sum to < or > 1.0. So 2020 “could be”
1.Xi’s worst year (say 20%-80% range)
2.best year (say 10-40%)
3.a mix of successes & setbacks (say10-70%)
Why not just give your best guess? pic.twitter.com/A3qNqKeIh3
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 20 |
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And not just right but "brilliant."
Do you want a scoring system in which pundits can compensate for being far off on a hard forecasting problem (a year off) by scoring a bull's eye on an much easier one (extrapolate the polls a month out)? @kesterjleek @drjennings
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 20 |
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It looks like cost-free tomfoolery—but it's really costly. It means alpha-pundits have no incentive to become more accurate—& lower-status challengers, who got it right sooner, have no chance to be noticed twitter.com/patricksturg/s…
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 19 |
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"Superforecasters" are better at tuning in signals—& tuning out noise. It’s not the millions of words had no effect. They had lots of effects, mostly tiny offsetting ones
@ezraklein pic.twitter.com/7ugPxaFKLJ
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Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock
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Dec 18 |
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So refreshing: i like the modesty--and eclecticism. Would like to explore possible joint work with IARPA program known as FOCUS (feel free to e-mail).
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