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Allen Cheng
ID physician, epidemiologist/statistician, Dad/villager. Opinions my own. RT ≠ endorsement
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Allen Cheng 53s
So sorry, Kat. It's a really awful time, and it is going to get worse for everyone before it gets better. But it will end.
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Allen Cheng retweeted
Nicholas A. Christakis 15h
Let’s talk about the fact that both the attack rate and the death rate among the young is indeed very low with COVID19, unlike most prior pandemics. And let’s speculate about some of the biological reasons. 1/
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Allen Cheng 1h
And I thought mathematical modelling was hard...
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Allen Cheng 2h
Sorry, I may have misunderstood. I was referring to universal mask use for healthcare workers. The use of masks for the general public is a different issue.
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Allen Cheng 2h
Replying to @trentyarwood
Or modellers, for that matter!
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Allen Cheng 2h
Replying to @Mummydoc1
Yep. But I can help and I will.
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Allen Cheng 3h
Thanks! Full day today unfortunately - haven't had a proper day off since late January - but at home with kids running around me!
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Allen Cheng 3h
There will be a time for universal masks. But to date only 21 cases in Victoria that don't have a link to another case or travel history (unlike US). We need to keep masks for when we really need them. Major efforts to get/make as many as we can, but only a finite global supply.
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Allen Cheng 6h
Replying to @mpwoodhead @GregHuntMP
PCR testing will not exclude the development of later COVID-19 if performed during the incubation period.
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Allen Cheng retweeted
Kai Kupferschmidt 17h
. sent out email this morning, dealing with question of airborne spread of . A few quotes to come. Bottom line: "According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes.”
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Allen Cheng 8h
I still fail to understand how aerosolisation can occur from a patient with a mask without a cough.
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Allen Cheng 16h
Replying to @MelissaLDavey
They come with explanations like in this paper! (I helped write it with much smarter co-authors and even now I have trouble reading it!).
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Allen Cheng 16h
Certainly hope is feeling better!
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Allen Cheng 16h
Actually haven't seen official definitions but we often talk of ILI ("influenza like illness") which often includes a criterion about not being able to go to work, and SARI ("severe acute respiratory Infection") which means hospitalisation.
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Allen Cheng 16h
Unusual approach to modelling. Instead of trying to track the proportion susceptible in the population as people get infection (the classic SIR model), they just assume the epidemic will somehow follow a bell shaped curve.
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Allen Cheng 16h
I'm not saying that it's not an awful disease to live through. But in reporting severity, we define "mild" as not needing hospitalisation, ICU or dying.
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Allen Cheng retweeted
Dr. Ron Daniels BEM Mar 26
Families and folk who've seen it on the news are asking me why we ventilate their loved ones on their tummies... so here, in 75 seconds, and slightly simplified, is why!
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Allen Cheng 18h
Measured perspective on PPE for healthcare workers. Worth keeping in mind that the US is ahead of Australia in the epidemic - where we can still distinguish cases based on risk factors (travel, contact), they can't.
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Allen Cheng 20h
Replying to @MelissaLDavey
Thanks for your reporting!
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Allen Cheng 20h
Replying to @Agent_Jase @theMJA
Yes
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