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Corey Hoffstein 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
Is that saying that on 4th and 1 on your own 10 you should go for it?
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Andrew Miller 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @choffstein @patrick_oshag
Yes, (although all 4th&1 not created equal) but the conversion rates on QB sneaks are extraordinarily high.
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Gary Basin 🤳 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
Also principal + agent problems here. When you do the unorthodox thing, you risk looking dumb. No one ever got fired for buying IBM
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Gary Basin 🤳 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
Until everyone got fired
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Brad Thibeau 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
ooo ooo, time for one of my favorite papers
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mikedariano 21. sij
Brad, Massey has been talking about this (and others) paper on podcast. He's softened on QB selection. Otherwise, great paper and great to see it followed (or not) in league.
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Anthony Bardaro 22. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
/1 These seem to express narrow probabilities of successful outcomes instead of incorporating broader considerations, like expected point values...
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Anthony Bardaro 22. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
/2 e.g. Getting stuffed on 4th & 1 from inside your own 10 yard line is probably something like a -5.5 point consequence -- disregarding the opportunity cost forgone from not strategically punting for field position... 🏁
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Will Kane 21. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
I’m guessing those models don’t take into account second order effects like team morale and momentum, time on field for offense and defense, etc.
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Jim Hutchinson 22. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @patrick_oshag
OK, planning on doing a simulation to see what works.
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James Barnsley 22. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @HutchCPA_I @patrick_oshag
The goalposts are in the right spot! Must be an old model
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