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@patio11 | |||||
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(Risky here being shorthand for "high variance in expected returns of the underlying.")
If you gave a choice "Would you rather have 100 CEOs in your network or 100 college students?" assuming low levels of investment in each relationship I think almost everyone picks wrong.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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Retweeted for endorsement. It's so effective it feels like cheating. twitter.com/webdevMason/st…
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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"Hello can I offer you an extremely large basket of high-variance options."
"I suppose that depends on the price."
"Oh it's a coffee or email each."
"Wait, what."
"Yeah nobody wants them."
"The world is mad."
(Also feels like the right thing to do, but that doesn't get it done.)
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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Is the financial angle helpful here? *shrug*
Conceptually speaking: helping someone out in a very minor way gives you some exposure to their future upside.
Basically everyone underestimates how much people can grow/accomplish in, say, 10 years, particularly among outliers.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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A thing the financial angle helps with is to the extent you think the metaphor is descriptive of reality you can prioritize where to invest based on how the metaphor is priced.
e.g. Options are worth more if they're risky and worth more if long-dated.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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N minutes ago, for the N00th time, someone approaching their first job in industry sent me an email out of the blue with a winding story about their salary negotiation and the question "Should I ask for X or would that be too much?"
My advice: pretty predictable. Took 30s.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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There are very few future world states in which I will regret the trade "I spent ~2 hours on email in 2020 answering a question which is a bit below my paygrade. Now, in 2030, 250 geeks walk around every day attributing $Y of their salary to me. The are not in first job anymore."
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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I apologize for sounding mercenary about this. Call it a lens to bring to the table.
It feels obvious to me, at a primal level, that of course one would welcome questions from people getting started, but many folks do not share this intuition, so maybe the sketched math helps.
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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YC is a staggeringly successful business and I would attribute at least tens of percent of it to the market consensus in Silicon Valley previously being "If you can't find an intro to me you're not worth my time to talk to" and pg et al saying "Any geek any time any way."
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
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1. velj |
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I do not think that YC will be the last or largest success built off that (or similar) insights.
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Jonathan Blow
@Jonathan_Blow
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1. velj |
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Well, you are backing this up with an example of heavily prefiltered college students. If you are talking totally random samples of each population, I will pick the CEOs, for sure.
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Bewildered Bear
@ArturBuchhorn
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1. velj |
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Very good. I did pick the CEOs without thinking much, but by the end of your thread you convinced me otherwise.
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