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Lionel Page
Economist . Author of forthcoming 'Optimally Irrational'. Tweet on behavioural economics, science and society.
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Lionel Page 13 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @bcmassey
Thanks Cade 🙏😊
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Lionel Page 21 h
This great excerpt from The Gulag Archipelago by Solzhenitsyn gives insight into the game theory of lavishing praise in dictatorships: “Don’t ever be the first to stop applauding!”
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Lionel Page 3. velj
Reminder that sports commentaries are narratives largely built on randomness.
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Lionel Page 2. velj
This cute video shows how tail wagging is a way to communicate. 🐶 only wags tail when making eye contact.
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Lionel Page 2. velj
We are watching the same game :).
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Lionel Page 1. velj
A great way to realise the sheer quantity of information our 🧠 seamlessly processes when we do a “simple” task like driving a car. This is what the Tesla autopilot sees using a neural network which took 70,000 GPU hours to train. ht
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Lionel Page 1. velj
NFL games’ broadcasts are 1h30 longer than football (soccer) games and they have three times less actual playing time: 18min vs 58min.
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Lionel Page proslijedio/la je tweet
Adam Oliver 31. sij
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Lionel Page proslijedio/la je tweet
Colin Camerer 31. sij
Incredible de facto social science experiment. Collective honking resets red light countdown to more time. Will it reduce honking? I think so
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Brilliant idea to adjust your perception about how you compare to a top athlete like Ronaldo.
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @safeortrue
We find that the pattern of momentum predicted by the model for male players. It suggests they don’t play all points 100%. But your insight is interesting! Players could be closer to playing 100% when the stakes are higher relative to effort costs: e.g Grand Slam final.
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @safeortrue
Consider two equal players. The value of reaching 30-30 is *less* than half the value of the game because players have to expend costly effort. Then: At 40-30 the stake is V(win)-V(30-30)>V(win)/2 At 30-40 the stake is V(30-30)-V(lose)<V(win)/2 We develop this in the paper.
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @safeortrue
The asymmetry comes from the stakes players are competing for. The stakes are higher for the player ahead at 40-30, than for the player at 30-40.
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @JohnQuiggin @StatModeling
Thanks for the reference. I find the Rawls/Harsanyi rule-based behaviour compelling too. What do you think?
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Lionel Page 31. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @safeortrue
It comes from an asymmetry in incentives. When you are ahead at 40-30, a win gives you the game. At 30-40, a win gives you a tied score where you’ll still have to work harder to win. So the payoff of effort is larger for the player at 40-30 than for the one at 30-40.
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Lionel Page 30. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @pro_fencesitter
For a quick intro: Binmore: “Game theory a very short introduction” For a deep dive: Osborne Rubinstein “A course in game theory” For fascinating discussions about cooperation and competition in all kind of social situations: Schelling “Strategy of conflict”
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Lionel Page 30. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @ee_kausel
Yes that is right! A server at 40-0 is less likely to be caught up than a receiver at 0-40. So the point is more important for the receiver.
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Lionel Page 30. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @danielmabuse
Yes they are (roughly).
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Lionel Page 30. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @florianederer
Indeed 6-6 is key for the tie-break.
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Lionel Page 30. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @page_eco
So if you find yourself on a court, or watching tennis, remember: the most critical points are most likely 30-30 and deuce. It’s an insight from game theory which goes beyond the case of tennis and tells us something about the dynamics of competitions. (End)
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