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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The UK's coronavirus policy may sound scientific. It isn't | Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam
Dominic Cummings loves to theorise about complexity, but he’s getting it all wrong, say academics Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Yaneer Bar-Yam
The Guardian The Guardian @guardian
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb Mar 25
Replying to @DrCirillo
2/ & I looked at the data, & we were shocked: it has the FATTEST tails I've seen. Fatter than the Levy distribution (alpha<½). Under such DEEP uncertainty you never gamble with idiotic scenario models. Never.
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mjau Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb
I live in Sweden, our health officials have praised the U.K. for this thinking. They now say that the goal isn’t herd immunity but kind of anyway. Not much is done to restrict the virus, not much testing either. I’m stuck in a big scary experiment with our lives.
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Sam Goymer Mar 25
Replying to @mjau10303930 @nntaleb
I find it very interesting how Sweden, Netherland and UK have all had similar thinking. All northern European, protestant nations. Some cultural insight to be investigated there!
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Beth Yamada Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb
Can someone explain what is going on in Japan? They are not isolating everybody, not closing business nor transportation. And epidemic seems controlled.
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GoldBelt Mar 25
Replying to @beth_yamada @nntaleb
Masks-Tokyo is business as usual without lockdowns or quarantines: “An 80% compliance rate [in wearing face masks] essentially eliminated the influenza outbreak. Gov/media wrong to advise public not to wear. But priority to hospitals due to low supplies
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Alexander 🇬🇧 Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb
Better late than never, I suppose. Pity they're two months late and had to overload the NHS and lock down the whole country for three weeks before adopting the obvious, easy, cheap, only solution, which saves the most lives. 🙄
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Alexander 🇬🇧 Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb
As Churchill almost said "The British always do the right thing - but only after exhausting all other possible options."
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Tom Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb
Thank you for this. Editor has chosen to emphasise Cummings role, but it may relate to the way scientific advice works in UK gov: Scientists are expected to reach a consensus in a SAGE meeting,and advice presented at COBRA, so "likely" outcome presented in favour of "worst case"
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Tom Mar 25
Replying to @nntaleb @RoryStewartUK
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