Twitter | Search | |
Hesam Aslan 🏝 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb
It all boils down to the amount of the noise in the stochastic process from the prediction time to the election (arbitrage settling date). Sure, if the noise is high ie anything can happen as you rightly claim, true probability is 50-50. (world is more chaotic than people assume)
Reply Retweet Like
Hesam Aslan 🏝 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb @NateSilver538
however, doesn't claim this and my understanding is he tries to represent the outlook of voters as a probability prediction (if nothing happens to the current state) which is not a true prediction but representation of current affairs in a probability format.
Reply Retweet Like
coinoviel 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb
Don’t insult the person, insult his audience. Me as a pedestrian, I don’t have much tolerance for being skinny-fat.
Reply Retweet Like
Joost van der Leij 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb
To be clear: if Nate Silver was forced to offer bets on his probabilities of Clinton or Trump win, we would have been able to make a sure bet. At one time we bought Clinton for an implied odd of 2.1 and Trump for 10. Clinton win = 10% profit. Trump win = 800% profit.
Reply Retweet Like
Not Yasuo Hamanaka 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb
Blurry. So can you provide the link?thanks.
Reply Retweet Like
Dj 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb
Can you talk about your book” the black swan “, please?
Reply Retweet Like
Ricky Saini 26 Jul 19
Replying to @Dj14347958 @nntaleb
We’ve talked about it a lot over the years, you might want to pick up “Skin in the Game” which deals with his more recent concerns
Reply Retweet Like
s952163 26 Jul 19
Replying to @nntaleb @NateSilver538
Nate Silver should be deplatformed.
Reply Retweet Like