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Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Flaneur: focus on probability (philosophy), probability (mathematics), probability (logic),probability (reallife), deadlifts, Phoenician wine, dead languages.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 52m
Replying to @nntaleb
3) Solution and methodology
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 53m
Replying to @nntaleb
2) SIMILAR PROBLEM: Someone tells you he saw a human 3 meter tall. What is the probability of the person being delusional (and no such thing as a 3m human) vs the probability of the person being sane and indeed there is a 3m human. Wittgenstein's ruler, again, but in math form.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 2h
I am certain we disagree on risk parity and covariance matrices. Heavily so.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3h
Replying to @nntaleb
You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3h
Replying to @landsunseen
You can inverse the prior to a breakeven point.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3h
Done by , greeeeeeat job.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 3h
Replying to @nikos_twits
Stay out of math discussions or you get blocked. Have some courtesy towards people involved in a technical discussion.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
Let's revisit the QUIZ more formally (I am adding it to my next book).
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
I can curse on Twitter but never on the page and never never inside my library(ies), simple separation holy/profane. You need separations holy/profane.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
Replying to @nntaleb
Talking skin in the game: the above pricing is what I have done heuristically, not formally, all my career in option trading. Every single person who held that "tails are expensive" have blown up (LTCM, Niederhoffer, bankers and other idiots) We just formalized & made public.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
Replying to @GiovanniForesta
Since 1984
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
Great day, finished the paper on option pricing under power laws. Mother of all results. Shows how tails are underpriced, EVEN now, how theories that tails are "expensive" are by sub-imbeciles. PLEASE TRY TO DEBUNK PAPER (but politely).
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 4h
Replying to @nntaleb
To understand non-interventionism and skin in the game in international affairs, and what it has to do with multiscale localism
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 5h
Your political opinion has no value if you don't try to act closer to a judge than to an advocate. Your political opinion has no value if you are an unconditional supporter or detractor of a president. Gabish?
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Clifford Asness 5h
Nassim wouldn’t block me. He doesn’t block you for being wrong, which I might often be, but for being dishonest.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb retweeted
Daniel McAdams 6h
If I were the neocons I'd resign in protest!! Time to go, boys!
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 7h
Replying to @Morunoyo @Extrachelle
Hoi polloi, rabble, rif raff, barbarian
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 7h
Replying to @Morunoyo @Extrachelle
Navari, Roma
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 7h
Replying to @Extrachelle @Morunoyo
Domari in Leb is probably from Latin (eq. to "civilized being"). Nawar is from Navari.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb 7h
You want to be bocked? These are NOT peer thinkers.
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