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neil_ferguson
Infectious disease modeller/epidemiologist. Director of J-IDEA and the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis
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neil_ferguson Apr 25
I gave my one media interview of the week to unherd. 30 minutes, so quite far-ranging.
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neil_ferguson Apr 20
Yes, well done, Jess!
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neil_ferguson Apr 2
Another good summary:
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neil_ferguson Apr 2
An excellent commentary:
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neil_ferguson Mar 27
Agree. There is legitimate political and social debate about what the right strategy is. But scientists need to focus on what the data tells us, including the uncertainties.
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neil_ferguson Mar 27
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Let me be clear. This virus has a lethality substantially in excess of “seasonal” flu. Yes, up to half of those infected might not show symptoms. But that is accounted for in our estimates and always was. There is no credible data supporting the idea that 90% are asymptomatic.
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neil_ferguson Mar 27
An excellent debunking of the current confusion and in some cases disinformation around mortality estimates for COVID-19 in the UK:
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neil_ferguson Mar 26
Our report adds to the increasing volume of research which supports call for rapid global action to control COVID-19 transmission.
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neil_ferguson Mar 26
Replying to @neil_ferguson
4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
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neil_ferguson Mar 26
Replying to @neil_ferguson
3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.
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neil_ferguson Mar 26
Replying to @neil_ferguson
2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.
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neil_ferguson Mar 26
1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Still getting used to personal sharing online! I am doing better thx - gone from flu like symptoms with fever and more 3 days ago to something which feels more like a bad head cold today. Still tired and snuffly but fingers crossed past the worst. Thx++ for all you good wishes.
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
Replying to @neil_ferguson
As well as the partners listed above, I would also like to thank all the other individuals and orgs who have offered to help. It is appreciated, but we only have limited bandwidth to manage such partnerships right now. We hope to bring more partners on board over time.
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
Replying to @neil_ferguson
That timescale reflects the balancing of those priorities with the multitude of other urgent policy-relevant COVID-19 questions we are addressing....
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
Replying to @neil_ferguson
They are also working with us to develop a web-based front end to allow public health policy makers from around the world to make use of the model in planning. We hope to make v1 releases of both the source and front end in the next 7-10 days...
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
Replying to @Microsoft @github and 2 others
I am happy to say that and are working with and to document, refactor and extend the code to allow others to use without the multiple days training it would currently require (and which we don’t have time to give)...
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neil_ferguson Mar 22
I’m conscious that lots of people would like to see and run the pandemic simulation code we are using to model control measures against COVID-19. To explain the background - I wrote the code (thousands of lines of undocumented C) 13+ years ago to model flu pandemics...
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neil_ferguson Mar 19
Generally a dry cough is more common - what I had. Then fever. But symptoms do vary a lot between people
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neil_ferguson Mar 19
Replying to @neil_ferguson
Again, many many thanks for everyone’s very kind support. I was tested given my recent proximity to people leading the UK response. Positive. Which is a strange experience - to be infected by the virus one is modelling 🙄. Still feeling rough, but not awful.
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