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Mark B. Spiegel
Investor, Managing Member of Stanphyl Capital, wiseguy. I buy deep value and short bubbles, and I don't do it quietly.
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Mark B. Spiegel retweeted
BNO Newsroom 16m
Huang Wenjun, a 42-year-old doctor at a hospital close to Wuhan, died of coronavirus about 3 hours ago. He's the 2nd doctor to die of coronavirus in less than 24 hours.
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Mark B. Spiegel 20m
Would someone please educate as to the fact that Q4 U.S. revenue was down >30% while in Europe the Model S&X are getting absolutely DESTROYED by the eTron & iPace, with the EQC & Taycan coming? Why is a non-stop (and highly misleading) Tesla commercial?
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Mark B. Spiegel 28m
Replying to @Forbes
The majority of the sudden non-patrons of Chinese businesses are CHINESE, so take your politically correct "racism" charge and shove it up your ass. It's primarily fear of asymptomatic coronavirus in people with certain travel & social patterns that's causing this, not "racism."
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Mark B. Spiegel 32m
Replying to @Zekeboy4
Actually, I shouldn't say "never." A couple of times in the past if something "unanalyzable" was technically completely washed out and there was a natural need for it I've taken a shot with small buys... and never made money, lol (ag products and natural gas).
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Mark B. Spiegel retweeted
Russian Market 39m
TRUMP SAYS CORONAVIRUS UNDER CONTROL IN U.S. - Coronavirus: hold my beer!
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Mark B. Spiegel 40m
Replying to @Zekeboy4
There's no real way to analyze what gold is "worth" so I never know what the right price is to pay for it. I don't fault anyone for owning it, but I never buy the "un-analyzable."
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Mark B. Spiegel 44m
If you thought the CRUISE industry was hit hard by this thing, wait 'til you see what it does to the TERRORISM industry! It's gonna be one canceled convention after another!
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Mark B. Spiegel 58m
I would not want to own an airline right now (or a camel taxi).
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Mark B. Spiegel 1h
Replying to @markbspiegel
I mean a 20% correction from the intra-day peak/ATH a few days ago would only bring that index back to where it was in October 2019. Was the world looking better in October or today? (Of course the post-October run was started by the fed announcing $60B/mo in new QE.)
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Mark B. Spiegel 1h
Replying to @markbspiegel
When the 2000 bubble burst a haircutter I knew bought all the way down because it "always" pops back up again. I'm not looking for a 2000-style crash (because central bankers now think "printing" is legit behavior) but -20% in would only take us back to October 2019!
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Mark B. Spiegel 1h
Replying to @markbspiegel
Here's the Weekend Wall Street link, by the way:
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Mark B. Spiegel 1h
I realize this is just a low-volume weekend indicator but the long percentage is surprisingly high & jibes with this: This is exactly what you see when a "bubble correction" turns into a "bubble popping"; i.e., cocky retail dip-buyers until it's too late.
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Mark B. Spiegel 2h
I keep thinking about this tweet from the former head of the FDA and can't help but wonder what's festering undetected in New York, San Francisco, Chicago, L.A. (okay, maybe not L.A. because everyone drives everywhere, lol), etc.
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Mark B. Spiegel 2h
Replying to @UCastellotti
Correct, if it all stopped today the lasting effect outside of China would "only" be "short-term recessionary." However, it seems to be worsening and it will take another 4-6 weeks to see how badly.
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Mark B. Spiegel 2h
Replying to @markbspiegel
The problem is there's SO much private sector debt out there that 3-4 months of "missed payments" could topple the whole thing, and the resulting depression can last a lot longer. Of course then the "emergency helicopter money" will start. I don't own gold but maybe I should!
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Mark B. Spiegel retweeted
Michael A. Gayed, CFA 2h
For what it's worth I do think the stock market is massively underestimating the slowdown impact of . I'm hearing those in the jewelry industry for example are basically in a panic as factories remain closed. Pending layoffs, a hiring freeze, etc.
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Mark B. Spiegel 2h
Replying to @markbspiegel
This coronavirus may cause a world-wide DEPRESSION (an >10% drop in GDP) even if for only a quarter or two. There's no doubt the REAL number from China (observed via massive defaults) will be even higher & I can easily see the rest of the world selling "10% less of everything."
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Mark B. Spiegel 2h
In addition to the massive manufacturing, energy, shipping, etc. impact of coronavirus... Travel & tourism is >10% of world GDP & a much higher % in some very economically vulnerable countries (>20% in Greece and 13% in Italy). I suspect it's crawling to a standstill.
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Mark B. Spiegel retweeted
Farnaz Fassihi 2h
coronavirus Sunday: Health ministry reports 60 % increase in deaths & 54% increase in infected numbers in just past 24 hours.
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Mark B. Spiegel retweeted
Nikkei Asian Review 9h
85% of China's small and midsize enterprises expect to run out of cash within three months, according to a report.
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