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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 7 Feb 18
The apparent consensus here is that I should look at Appalachia. But instead, I think I am going to write about the Amish, if that's all right? (but seriously I'm working on Appalachia but it'll take some time)
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民
Did you know the Amish share of national population doubled from 1992 to 2017? Cuz I didn't know. But at this rate, we'll be a 100% Amish country in 255 years!!!!!!!!!!
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 7 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
In a pre-reproductive-technology population, the rate at which couples have twin children should be 5-10 per thousand. With modern technology, we've raised it to 15-20 per thousand. The Amish have it "naturally" at 12-16. Genetic isolates are freaky.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 7 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Who do you side with in the inevitable cataclysmic struggle for final rulership of earth?
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 7 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Update. Guys. The Amish experienced a post-WWII baby boom of similar shape as the rest of the US. And their fertility decline has been about equivalent in absolute number of births-per-woman lost too.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 7 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Add in the additional conundrum that I've mentioned before, namely that TFRs began rising *before* the soldiers came home from WWII, and you get an ongoing mystery about what caused the baby boom.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Time for Amish blogging! NEW POST: The Amish have super-high fertility.... but it tracks general U.S. fertility trends fairly closely, which tells us U.S. fertility trends might NOT be driven by technology or cultural shifts. Which is NOT my prior.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @ModeledBehavior
imposing a share-mandate on of course
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @WilcoxNMP
but the person this post is ACTUALLY for is . I didn't expect it to be for him. But it ended up for him when I realized how useful the Amish are for helping think about U.S. general fertility trends.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Yes everyone, that's right, Amish fertility trends help us frame our thinking about US TFR. Why? Because Amish fertility closely tracks general US TFR! Which is crazy! It shouldn't do that!
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Think about that. When you correct for the *level* of fertility, the time-series changes in fertility between the Amish and the U.S. general population are *about the same*. *huge explosion noises*
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @ModeledBehavior
Now here's why this is ACTUALLY bait. It's not because he lives in Amish land. It's because if the economy is what's really suppressing TFR... Then that means the economy is still a weight on people... And that means.... THERE'S STILL SLACK PEOPLE.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
And yes, my argument is that low Amish fertility can be seen as evidence of ongoing labor market slack. Notably, the Amish are also concentrated in areas that were heavily exposed to Chinese competition. *drops a mic from a 57-story building*
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @Medium
Final note: I was sad to find that there is no pre-existing "Amish" tag on . I am now, AFAIK, the sole user of that tag.
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Oh also! Another fun fact I forgot to mention! Amish people have much higher total fertility than non-Amish... BUT... They have LOWER teen pregnancy and seemingly lower pregnancy in their 40s as well! They just pack their 20s and 30s with kids!
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Lyman Expand the House Stone, AKA 石來民 8 Feb 18
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Also, total speculation here, but ya know what I BET Amish people like? Chili.
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