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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
The only strategy that actually works is travel bans and centralized quarantine, and those are precisely the things that western countries just cannot stomach.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
all the Australian people in the mentions here being like HOW COULD YOU FORGET ABOUT AUSTRALIA or HEY WE ARE A WESTERN COUNTRY TOO are just adorable
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
But seriously it's funny to me Aussies are all proud of how tough their lockdown was and the truth is what's actually "working" for Australia is that they've kept inbound travel down at like -98% YoY.
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Lyman Stone 石來民
My general rule of thumb is travel ban effectiveness increases exponentially with intensity. A 100% travel ban is literally infinitely effective. A 50% travel restriction probably has hardly any effect at al.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
The evidence out of the 1918 South Pacific quarantines suggests that you really get most of the benefit of a travel ban in the last 5%. 93% reductions aren't 93% effective they're like 25% effective.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
And eyeballing countries for which we have data this time around supports this view. Seems like most countries which have still managed to avoid uncontrolled community spread have managed to reduce their cross-border flows by huge shares, and kept them down.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Whenever people say, "well but those are small island countries," it's amazing to me they think that's a rebuttal. Yes. Small island countries has an easier time imposing travel bans. Being a small island is like an exogenous shock to ability to impose travel bans.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
The "small island" advantage is simply "it's easier to impose a travel ban." That's it. That's what it is. Big countries COULD do it too. It just takes political will.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Travel bans. They work.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
*sighs* Hawaii *had* a travel ban. They relaxed on it. Now they're having a big wave of cases. Because they relaxed on the travel ban!
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Same story with Puerto Rico. All these islands that were doing so well thought they could allow travel again. Wrong. You can't.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
Here's arrivals at the Honolulu airport vs. US all border crossings and Australia arrivals. Hawaii WAS walled off nice and tight. But now it's not. Travel is up to nearly 20% of pre-COVID levels. That's entering the "basically no benefit" territory.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
One problem in all these debates is people have a hard time keeping on top of all the moving parts. Hawaii had a travel ban. It worked. Then they stopped banning travel, and, surprise surprise, they got another big wave.
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Alex Godofsky Oct 27
Replying to @lymanstoneky
that's more like tan not an exponential
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