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Lumos Biotech
THREAD /14 🩺 ANALYSIS 🔬 It *seems* that are the main limitation on understanding scale. There are currently 2 cited methods: ➡️ PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction) from DNA swab ➡️ CT Scan of Lungs
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
To start with, let's look at the symptom chain: 99% ▶️ fever >50%▶️ fatigue and dry cough ~33%▶️ muscle pain & difficulty breathing (after 5 days) At the beginning it manifests more like a virus. If it gets more serious it starts to look more like .
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
Last Thursday, we saw a large jump in the official number of cases in when it was announced that had expanded to CT Scan: "Mike Ryan, head of WHO’s health emergencies program, said that more than 14,000 new cases reported in Hubei province ...
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
...overnight came after a change to include results from quicker computerized tomography (CT) scans that reveal lung infections, rather than relying just on laboratory tests to confirm cases." The expanded definition doesn't imply the outbreak grew.
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
But it shows the challenges posed trying to diagnose virus: ➡️ incubation period up to 24 days; possibility of symptomless ➡️ many symptoms virtually indistinguishable from flu🔬 req. ➡️ can progress to pneumonia-like symptoms 🩺
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
There have been countless articles that have articulated two problems: ➡️ lack of RT-PCR test kits available, even in the West ➡️ potential flaws/timing errors with RT-PCR tests leading to false negatives
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
Last week the 🇺🇸CDC had to recall test kits because of problems with a reagent. "specifically some public health labs at states were getting inconclusive results and what that means is that test results were being read as inconclusive"
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
The only private company (from my research) that has a state-approved kit is through their Primer Design division. Those rapid-testing kits (2 hours) can be used in the EU, after officially being granted the CE-Mark certification.
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
The advantage to Primer's kits are: "the company's test can be used directly by laboratories and hospitals for the testing of patients without the need for validation by clinicians." They have received requests for > 288,000 as of Friday from China, US and UK.
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
"we believe is the first CE-Mark approved test for clinical diagnosis of the 2019 strain of the novel ." According to the article, they are in discussion with the 🇺🇸US FDA for approval to allow hospitals and labs to make clinical diagnosis
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
Based on data out of 🇨🇳, RT-PCR and CT Scan were 93% accurate (sample of 167 ppl) when combined : "Researchers found that the combination of CT and DNA analysis was able to confirm a diagnosis of in the vast majority of the patients (93%)."
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
Knowing this, we can see that current protocols are unlikely to be capturing full outbreak . CDC🇺🇸uses RT-PCR according to their site: And classify cases like so: ➡️ Persons Under Investigation (PUI) ➡️ Positive, Negative and Pending
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
In 🇨🇦 we usually see the term 'presumptive' in relation to a presumed "+" case that needs to be confirmed at the central lab. But 'presumptive' seems to follow criteria that could be seen as subjective, medically speaking. This is why are difficult.
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Lumos Biotech Feb 17
Replying to @lumosbio
Conclusions: ➡️ Impossible to understand and Ro until capabilities scale up ➡️ Expanded definition with should help to identify more cases ➡️ Private companies like should help push pace of to⬆️ test speed & accuracy
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Lumos Biotech Feb 19
Replying to @lumosbio
ADDITION to the Thread: "We also showed test 🩸 can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future . Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes"
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Lumos Biotech Feb 25
Replying to @lumosbio
+ ADDITION to Thread 👇discusses challenges developing rapid/accurate testing for "Although many clinics still lack access to a robust, accurate and sensitive test, impressive progress has been made in a matter of weeks"
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Lumos Biotech Feb 27
Replying to @lumosbio
+ADDITION to Thread Another private co. will launch* RT-PCR solution for detection, an iteration on their original QIAstat-Dx panel. Projected response time of 1 hour. *Pending emergency regulatory approvals
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Lumos Biotech Feb 27
Replying to @RSNA
+ Thread detection of via "The positive rates of RT-PCR assay and chest CT imaging in our cohort were 59% (601/1014), and 88% (888/1014) for the diagnosis of suspected patients with COVID-19, respectively"
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