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Zac
Looking at snowfall from a long term perspective. Spending time / Not climate tweets unless otherwise noted.
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Zac Sep 18
Week 1-4 EC Monthly snowfall anomalies. Week 2-3 features solid snowfall accum growth in Eurasia. Week 2-4 with solid snowfall growth on the Canadian Rockies, spreading to the rest of Northern Canada in Week 4.
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Zac Sep 18
Replying to @Weathernut3
Within the next week if all goes well.
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Zac Sep 16
Replying to @longrangesnow
This would mean a rapid rise in snowfall in September, to stabilise in early October. Interesting and proof that winter is rapidly approaching the Northern Hemisphere.
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Zac Sep 16
Replying to @longrangesnow
EC Monthly for the last week of September: The two lows over Siberia, and the low over North America combine to produce large-scale snowfall over those regions. The EC Monthly strengthens the TPV in early October with some favouring for North America.
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Zac Sep 16
This is the October 1st EPS Control snow cover forecast: As you can see there is above average snow coverage over Siberia and deep into the North American continent. Could lead to an early season, or just an indication of a medium-term trend.
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Zac Sep 16
Replying to @windjunky @DrAHButler
Generally a technical SSW event is declared with a zonal wind reversal at 10mb. It would be great if it could manage to get down to 10mb. It's not like the event has descended at great speed, so there's still certainly a chance.
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Zac Aug 31
And my first outlook for the Northern Hemisphere is now available! Positive for Western US, Japan and the Northern Alps. Warm Neutral ENSO, some -EPO ridging and a strong Aleutian low.
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Zac Aug 30
Last long range outlook for the Aussie Alps for this season now available. Discussing 16-20th Sept and 27th Sept-1st Oct events Also talking about the potentially good end to the snowfall season Cheers for those who have read the outlooks during the season
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Zac retweeted
Zac Aug 28
Replying to @zd1awrence
Another graphic, with my forecast drawn in for the rest of the month, here you see the ideal progression for SH impacts over the rest of September. I see a -AAO from the 2nd/3rd week of Sept until at least the 1st week of Oct, given an event of this size. 3/3
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Zac Aug 28
Replying to @zd1awrence
Another graphic, with my forecast drawn in for the rest of the month, here you see the ideal progression for SH impacts over the rest of September. I see a -AAO from the 2nd/3rd week of Sept until at least the 1st week of Oct, given an event of this size. 3/3
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Zac Aug 28
Replying to @zd1awrence
The key thing to note here with the plantary wave activity (courtesy ) is that there is two w-1 events here. So this is why the tropospheric effects of this is pushing deep into September. It’s also why it’s so major, and such a historic event. 2/3
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Zac Aug 28
Stratosphere is warming right now and even more into the next few days. Something forecast two weeks ago, finally coming to fruition. Shows the stability of stratospheric forecasts IMO. 1/3
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Zac Aug 26
I reckon they will be at it's biggest during the 3rd and 4th weeks of Sept, per the progression of the weak zonal flow downwards to the troposphere being relatively slow.
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Zac Aug 26
It is however a historic event with this SSW proposed to be as strong as the 2002 event. I can definitely see something big happening in September.
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Zac Aug 25
Replying to @Gergyl @windjunky
Potential for a lot of cold. -AAO to go negative. Potential for major coldfronts, potentially with snow. MJO is also aligning with the best period, so potential is good.
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Zac Aug 23
EC building up the potential major SSW for the Southern Hemisphere - starting in the next few days, peaking at the end of the month, effects to come in September. Wow, it looks awesome though
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Zac Aug 23
The new website is LIVE!!! All of the old posts and details are still there on the new website. Providing a space where I can expand the blog to the capacity I want. Please take a look. Plenty of work still to come, so don’t expect this to be the final
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Zac Aug 21
A hint that the potential SH SSW event will cause it's biggest effects from say the 5th of Sept, all the way to the 25th. Focus is on mid-month prospects
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Zac Aug 21
It's been likely for a week. Pretty amazing the signals you can catch so far out. Potential for big implications for the SH circulation here too.
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Zac Aug 21
Replying to @BenNollWeather
And that's because of consistent stratospheric warming (not to a SSW degree though) all season. It's helped the Australian snow season, and contributed to -AAO events earlier this month and in July.
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