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Leonard Kiefer
Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. I help people understand the economy, housing, and mortgage markets.
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Leonard Kiefer retweeted
Polly Apr 12
My sister just messaged me that she’d seen a Game of Thrones clip that quoted “Knowledge is Power”. She’d immediately responded “France is bacon” and laughed out loud because I once showed her this 2011 Reddit answer by Lard_Baron.
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 13
They grow up so fast...
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 12
Replying to @lenkiefer
Even MOAR charts and code to reproduce them here
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 12
If you are really ready to get the weekend started with a bang, I wrote up some time series decompositions of housing data: Is the U.S. housing expansion over?
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 12
Replying to @TarasNovak
the lowest recorded weekly rate was in late 2012, but rates were also dirt cheap in early 2013. good timing
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 12
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Leonard Kiefer retweeted
Gunnar Blix Apr 11
So many (nerdy) things to ponder, so little time. I love this data analysis by , and he’s only scratched the surface of interpreting what it could mean. 1/4
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @KatchaPeter
Thanks, that's a good idea. Though perhaps harder than it seems as I am still puzzling through it myself. Writing down reproducible code might help future me figure it out. Appreciate the comment Peter.
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @KatchaPeter
You mean in the blog post?
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @BenMoretti
Yeah! it's excellent! though in this case kableExtra was what I wanted (more for the row/column group headers)
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
also, on the front, used kableextra to make giant table scroll-able
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
got a giant table comparing wavelet variance decomposition across a bunch of housing indicators
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
so with a demographic tailwind the housing recovery might not yet be over. and lower rates might even jump start housing markets in 2019
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
on the other hand, the medium term(64 to 128 quarters or 8 -32 years) trend —possibly reflecting demographic forces—has been trending higher
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
across a variety of housing indicators, the business cycle trend (associated with fluctuations at 16-32 quarters or 4-8 years) has been heading lower
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @lenkiefer
There's of course package for that, so I applied the same technique to a bunch of housing data, like housing starts
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Replying to @RichmondFed
There's a very interesting new paper via on decomposing macroeconomic time series using wavelets
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
Is the U.S. recovery over? I explore with
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Leonard Kiefer retweeted
Will Doerner 🏠 📈 Apr 11
If you're attending and are interested in , stop by Salon A at 10:15AM MST. I'll share an example of how research can assist public policy programs. More details:
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Leonard Kiefer Apr 11
2,507 weeks of rates 1 📉
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