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Leonard Kiefer
Deputy Chief Economist at Freddie Mac. I help people understand the economy, housing, mortgage markets.
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Leonard Kiefer 10h
Was so proud my home brewed pdf text scraping script could deal with two column text. Should have thought less about how great that was and more about the possibility of three columns.
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Leonard Kiefer 11h
Replying to @rmazor
yeah, but i have to track down the older reports
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Leonard Kiefer 12h
Replying to @lenkiefer
related: what were the topics particular to each report? The tf-idf stat gives a view
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Leonard Kiefer 12h
during today's webcast Chris Herbert kept referring to "gloom and doom" in reference to the perennial challenges in housing I scored the historical reports 2000-2019 for sentiment. Sentiment turned positive in 2018, but declined in 2019's report
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Leonard Kiefer 13h
new homes sales by month
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
Replying to @jenny_schuetz
too few!
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
make it all the way through to this astounding figure (37) on rising frequency and cost of natural disasters
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
Replying to @WatsonLadd
plural of anecdote is data
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Leonard Kiefer retweeted
Jenny Schuetz 16h
when we think about housing policy solutions, we must correctly diagnose local differences in housing markets. (Yes!!)
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
"not many people remember an 18% interest rate" at webcast but mortgage rates really were that high, averaging almost 13 percent through the 1980s
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
thanks, categories based on National Survey of Mortgage Originations, but I can pass that along
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
. mentioned research on down payment in webcast that report here:
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
Replying to @Uptight_Dad
part of that historical gap is needed to make up for destroyed/converted units and to keep vacancy rate stable. Math isn't exact, but here's one way to calculate it:
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Leonard Kiefer 16h
Not building enough housing, over the last 8 years housing construction has just matched household formation (not leaving any excess to make up for destroyed units, keeping vacancy rates constant)
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
Replying to @land463
Yeah, it's tough and likely to get tougher given demographics, building trends
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
Replying to @lenkiefer
...still, year-to-date total of new home sales through May most since 2007
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
Replying to @lenkiefer
...returning to a pattern of falling sales, rising inventory...
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
Replying to @lenkiefer
...unsold inventory ticks up...
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
new home sales down...
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Leonard Kiefer 18h
Replying to @surlyurbanist
thanks! sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do
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