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Kai Kupferschmidt
For me and for everyone I know who has been following , the last few days have felt like a profound shift in the epidemic. We are clearly entering a new phase. And since I've had some time to digest recent news, here is a short thread about that „window of opportunity“
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO
From the start, has been very clear about its strategy: Fight hard at its source in China and keep it from establishing a foothold elsewhere. It was always a long shot, but it was the right thing to do and it has bought the world time.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
The and have emphasized again and again that there is a “window of opportunity” to contain . On Friday, Tedros said he believed that window of opportunity was still there, but narrowing. Personally, I think the last days have shown that time is up.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
Why do I believe that? First in general: there is the way the virus has spread on the , in hospitals, in prisons. is very infectious, patients seem to spread it for a long time and cases are hard to detect. It is simply very hard to contain such a virus.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
Iran: Until three days ago, Iran had not reported a single case. Now we are at 28 cases, incl. 5 deaths. The number of deaths and also the cases of travellers from Iran testing positive suggests this is the tip of an iceberg. We will soon see how large that iceberg is.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
South Korea: The country has now confirmed 433 cases. Most of these are related to a hospital outbreak and to meetings of a religious group. The sheer number is going to make it hard to contain this. Are we looking at a second China? Hopefully not, but it’s possible.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
Singapore with its gold-standard surveillance, has at least 7 cases that have not been traced to a known transmission chain. Japan has a similar problem. Italy has local transmission incl. 2 deaths, which suggests those numbers will go up significantly.
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
And these are just the things we know. We can only guess what we don’t know. This MRC analysis suggests that 2/3 of all cases exported from China have been missed
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
From the summary: "we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially resulting in multiple chains of as yet undetected human-to-human transmission outside mainland China"
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
None of this is a shock. Most researchers always expected it would get to this point. The question is: What happens now? I’m not a public health expert, I’m not an epidemiologist. I’m a journalist. That means I think a lot about communication and that has to enter a new phase too
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Kai Kupferschmidt Feb 22
Replying to @WHO @DrTedros
The massive efforts in China have bought us time. But we should be using that time to prepare and that includes preparing the world by communicating what is happening, what is likely to happen and what the response might look like. That is the “window of opportunity” we have now.
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