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NEW: a common response to reports of hospitals struggling this winter is "it’s no different to a bad flu season!"
I’ve tracked down historical data on flu ICU admissions, including winter 2017-18, a record high.
Here’s how England’s Covid winter compares to a bad flu season 
pic.twitter.com/tsExrDZM31
We can also address claims like "hospitals are always full in winter", or "it’s just people who were already in hospital for other reasons catching Covid on the ward" Here are numbers of people in ICU beds (for any reason) in London hospitals, each winter Spot the odd one outpic.twitter.com/j7IQMqKtT4
Unless there has been a coincidental 50% rise in ICU admissions for other reasons (narrator: there hasn’t https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1345072641309335552 …), the only explanation for an unprecedented surge in ICU occupancy this winter is people who are there *because they caught Covid*.pic.twitter.com/6z1AmVvFdv
And similarly, it cannot be true that people ill with Covid "are just the same people who would usually be admitted with flu", when the numbers of people admitted to ICU with Covid are several times larger then even a historically bad flu season.pic.twitter.com/5i5TtLeTi8
This is why hospitals in London (and beyond) face a genuine risk of being totally overwhelmed in the coming weekshttps://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1346933766082580480 …
Doctors & nurses do amazing, stressful work reallocating beds to squeeze Covid patients into, but a) those beds are taken away from other patients who risk losing treatment for other illness & injury, and b) when numbers get high enough, there simply aren’t any more beds or staff
Unfortunately that’s where we now are in parts of the country, and the consequences will be grim.
Sources:
• Chart 1 uses Covid data from the brilliant @PHE_uk weekly surveillance report, and compares it to data I extracted from past annual flu reports https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports …
• Chart 2 uses @NHSEngland daily situation reports on critical care beds https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/uec-sitrep/ …
Yes. Also worth remembering the strains on hospitals aren't just about occupancy but also about staffing levels. Which have fallen over the past 10 years. Also many are having to isolate due to covid.
Not sure that's evidence that covid isn't spreading to patients admitted for reasons other than covid. I don't believe that's a big thing, but would like to see a number for people currently in hospital who were *admitted* for covid. Don't think that exists
It's literally on the ONS dashboard.
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