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Robert D. Brown III
Project financial planning and decision risk analyst. Author -
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Robert D. Brown III Sep 7
Risk Awareness Week (2020) is back! See the link below to sign up now.
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Robert D. Brown III Aug 31
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Robert D. Brown III retweeted
Jorge Muro Arbulú Jul 22
A 90 días desde que utilizamos el modelo de con restricciones de para proyectar el número de fallecidos en Perú por y lamentablemente nuestro modelo ha acertado. En este enlace podrán acceder al análisis realizado:
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Robert D. Brown III Jul 18
Non-centralized economies satisfy more efficiently, but since every allocation decision involves tradeoffs and opportunity cost, it’s never clear that any state in time is an optimal.
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Robert D. Brown III Jul 18
The question is whether the objective being optimized is satisfying to the largest number of people across all their objectives. Centralizing fails to accommodate local, idiosyncratic knowledge, which distorts pricing & profit signals, leading to misallocation.
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Robert D. Brown III Jun 21
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Robert D. Brown III Jun 21
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Robert D. Brown III Jun 19
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 21
If you have faced an setback due to the pandemic, consider attending this online seminar hosted by the Digital Analytics Association in .
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 12
John Conway: In memoriam. A life well lived.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 10
Replying to @v_shakthi
We should have taken better care of Mars.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
If by “gut” you mean that after careful reflection on arguments, research, guidance, etc., you synthesize all that with your objectives, goals, and preferences, then commit to action because you sense that it’s somehow in harmony, that seems different from common use of “gut.”
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
By the way, I don’t advocate for a system that always leads to desirable outcomes. That’s impossible because we live in a world in which knowledge about future states is constrained by uncertainty. I do believe, though, there are better approaches than others.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
Of course, if by “gut” you don’t mean emotionally driven or instinctive responses, I’d be interested to know what you mean by “gut” because it’s still ambiguous to me.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
The reason we have an entire body of heuristics and normative guidance for how best to make decisions is because wise people recognized that emotionally driven decision making was frequently disastrously flawed.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
“I suspect it's not going with gut that leads to more mistakes.” Research shows that it’s the exact opposite, unless we’re talking about learned responses after hundreds of hours of training for situations for which there is little time for reflective thought.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
Colloquially, most mean their emotional urging or prejudicial instinct. Gerd Gigerenzer who talks about “gut” a lot means very specifically the sort of automatic response after hundreds of hours of training. It’s not natural instinct but one learned through teaching & mentoring.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 8
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
To be honest, I’m not sure I know how to interpret that. Certainly, there’s an emotional component to motivate making a decision at all, but I still don’t know what “gut” is because there’s such a wide range of usage.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 7
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
...your gut. How might you anticipate that the board will respond to such a request? I’m trying to understand what you mean by “gut,” if there are actually any limits to its efficacy, how it scales to large organizations, and if there are reasonable remedies to its limits.
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Robert D. Brown III Apr 7
Replying to @isaacmorehouse
I’m honestly seeking clarification. Suppose in an alternate universe you work as an executive for a large multinational corporation. You go to the board and request $850M to build a new commodity processing plant. The only justification you offer for the allocation of funds is...
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