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Willy Woo
So 30% think the bottom is in, 40% think more bear, and 30% are undecided. People asked what I think. To me nothing has really changed, apart from some sideways nail biting. I'll repeat with updates...
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
This last reading of our blockchain and macro market indicators is still in play...
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
What has changed is that NVTS has now broken its support, typically a sell signal. (This happened same day the Liquid Sidechain started taking volume off the main chain, "corrected NVTS" would be lower, thus I think this last sighting of NVTS is still a valid sell signal)
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Bitcoin Network Momentum still needs to climb to put a bottom on the bear. This is on-chain BTC volume, it describes speculative HODL activity, including hidden OTC trade,
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @MustStopMurad
As mentioned in private conversation, all our blockchain indicators remain bearish... NVT, NVTS, MVRV, BNM, NVM. They are experimental but have served to make very correct calls to date, even when traditional on-exchange indicators were reading to the contrary.
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Putting together the blockchain view, I suspect the timing for a bottom may be around Q2 2019. After that we start the true accumulation band, only after that, do we start a long grind upwards. /end
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Footnote 1: Many see this sideways band of the last 90 days as a sign of an accumulation bottom. I'm not seeing enough coins changing hands to make this true.
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Footnote 2: If price (in the short term) bounces upwards here, which is certainly possible, I think the 200 day moving average is the upper band of the move. This is ~$7k right now.
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Remember if price goes above the 200DMA, in the history of BTCUSD's 8 year trade history, it's been a reliable indicator of bear to bull transitions. It's too early to transition out of the bear.
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Footnote 3: Under the blockchain view, the setup we are in looks remarkably like mid 2014. The price action looks different, the HODL activity looks the same. A mid bear market pause.
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Willy Woo 13 Nov 18
Replying to @woonomic
Footnote 4: Many alts have painted accumulation bottoms and early upticks. This is due to the sideways banding of BTCUSD. Since they amply BTCUSD movements, alts will likely be bull trapped under this forecast.
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