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Bloomberg writer challenges racist assumptions in National Review piece about crime

After New York's murder rate dropped to levels not seen since the 1950s, conservative writer Heather MacDonald suggested that the decline in the city's black population was the reason for the shift. Columnist Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) challenged her views, as did others.
Downtown Josh Brown Dec 28
Crime in New York City Plunges to a Level Not Seen Since the 1950s Less than 300 murders this year, in a sprawling city of 8.5 million people. Crime rate falling for 27 straight years.
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Manhattan Institute Dec 29
New York City’s homicide rate is at a near-60-year low, but don’t take the wrong lessons: proactive policing still matters, writes . via
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Eugene Scott Dec 29
“NYC’s formerly high-crime neighborhoods have experienced a stunning degree of gentrification over the last 15 years, thanks to the proactive-policing-induced conquest of crime. It is that gentrification which is now helping fuel the ongoing crime drop.”
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Eugene Scott Dec 29
Replying to @Eugene_Scott
“Urban hipsters are flocking to areas that once were the purview of drug dealers and pimps, trailing in their wake legitimate commerce and street life, which further attracts law-abiding activity and residents in a virtuous cycle of increasing public safety.”
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Eugene Scott Dec 29
Replying to @Eugene_Scott
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Noah Smith Dec 28
1/Many of us recently noted that New York City, the most diverse city in America, is also one of the safest.
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
2/People I know on the Right almost all responded by saying: "Of course New York is safer, it's gotten more white."
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
3/Now, Heather MacDonald has an article in National Review making essentially this same claim.
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
4/So is this right? Is the replacement of black residents by white residents the reason for New York's epic crime drop? Here is the data for % white, % black, and murder rates in NYC by decade, from 1960 through 2010.
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
5/First thing to notice: The white population % of NYC fell in each of these decades. Second thing to notice: The black population % fell only slightly since its peak in 1990 (from 28.71% to 25.55%).
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
6/Now look at murder rates. In 1980, when the murder rate was FOUR TIMES as high as in 2010, the white population % was slightly higher, and the black population % was slightly lower, than in 2010.
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
7/Since murder peaked around 1990, the black population % has fallen by around 3 percentage points, while the white population % has fallen by over 8 percentage points.
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Noah Smith Dec 28
Replying to @Noahpinion
8/Inescapable conclusion: NYC's epic crime drop was NOT due to the population of the city shifting from black to white. Don't let racial stereotypes eat your brain, folks! Always look at the data. (end)
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Elizabeth Picciuto Dec 29
Good thread on National Review article that's both wrong and moreover racistly wrong.
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The Streeter Dec 29
Replying to @Noahpinion
It’s long been assumed that de facto segregated neighborhoods and ‘white flight’ contribute to a city’s crime rate. Isn’t the NRO article just asserting the converse?
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The Rude Pundit Dec 29
Replying to @SopanDeb
But...crime is down in majority non-white neighborhoods, too.
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Christopher Ingraham Dec 28
Replying to @_cingraham
The author is Heather “War On Cops” MacDonald, who among other things uses comparisons with the year 2000 to explain a drop that happened from 2016 to 2017
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Christopher Ingraham Dec 28
Replying to @_cingraham
Also attempts to use Chicago as a counter-example of what happens when black people *don’t* move out, only to sheepishly note that murders are down in Chicago too this year
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@ijbailey Dec 29
Replying to @NRO
This woman spent years passionately arguing that stop-and-frisk was the reason crime was dropping in New York but now changes that because crime dropped to historic lows without it. Who edited this piece? And why wasn't she asked to deal honestly with that clear discrepancy?
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kathykattenburg Dec 29
Replying to @ijbailey @NRO
She's also going against what the NYPD itself says about the crime drop. Racism is an even higher value for her than supporting law enforcement professional expertise.
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Ladyperson Dec 29
.’s use of the term “the anti-cop Left” puts the icing on her intellectual laziness. I had to check the masthead to make sure I wasn’t reading Breitbart.
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Briahna "Intersectionality Includes Class" Gray Dec 29
New York City is the MOST black and LEAST white it has been since 1900, but The National Review says that the 60 year low homicide rate is because, get this, GENTRIFICATION. GTFO
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Oren Yaniv Dec 29
Among the many flaws in this argument is the fact that the gentrified neighborhoods the writer cherry-picked (Bed-Stuy and Bushwick) had relatively modest declines this year, while much less gentrified East NY and Brownsville experienced major drops.
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Michael Tracey Dec 29
"stop-and-frisk" dead-enders should be treated with the same intense scorn as Iraq War dead-enders
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Hari Prasad Dec 29
Lot of other people have already debunked the claims here. But just another example of how the National Review is absolute shit for talking about race.
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Dustin P. Walsh Dec 29
This is one of the most stunningly ignorant posts of 2017. Seriously, Drunk Uncle couldn't have written a worse diagnosis. Correlation does not imply causation. Maybe poverty is the big player and race is a byproduct, Heather?
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Coles Street Pothole Dec 29
Replying to @SopanDeb
The ease with which that piece transitions from discussing crime to discussing race is stunning.
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Tom Hilton Dec 29
I’m not sure the author considers that a transition at all.
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Shawna Ohm Dec 29
Among the many (many) errors in this article: No hipster moves to a neighborhood (minority or otherwise) bc of policing. They move where housing is cheapest.
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Christopher Ingraham Dec 28
Replying to @_cingraham
The Manhattan Institute should just rename itself the Staten Island Institute tbh
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