Twitter | Search | |
John P. Hussman Apr 5
Eeesh. They may try to run this poor thing straight up and over a cliff. Recall the 2000 top was in March but they briefly ran it back in Sep 00. Ditto in Oct 07. When warning signs are ignored, the endings are abrupt. Maintain safety nets, but don't assume stupidity has limits.
Reply Retweet Like
Tully Apr 5
Replying to @hussmanjp
If they want it, I suppose the market will give it to them. Incredible times when the base case scenario for the next bear market is almost a great depression.
Reply Retweet Like
John P. Hussman
Yep. A ~65% loss would literally be a run-of-the-mill completion of this cycle, without even breaking historical valuation norms. Investors forget that by the 2009 low, the market had surrendered two consecutive bubbles, putting S&P 500 total returns behind T-bills since June '95
Reply Retweet Like More
BC Apr 5
Can I ask a question , how do you factor in Future QE or MMT into your forecast? I agree with your return thesis, but th introduction of extra measures from the FED makes me scratch my head as to future value?
Reply Retweet Like
John P. Hussman Apr 5
They don't affect value. They affect speculation. But that's fine. The entire net gain of the market in the recent cycle occurred during periods when market internals were favorable; nearly all the losses when they were not. The key is to faithfully respond to shifts in the data.
Reply Retweet Like
user_error Apr 7
I remember you saying perhaps a year ago that overval is spread across all asset classes. Yet I've also read that generally, in US value has underperformed growth this cycle and will mean-revert "soon". Thoughts?
Reply Retweet Like
John P. Hussman Apr 7
I suspect the value-growth spread may begin to mean revert during over the completion of this cycle by value falling less. Absolute relative gains will likely wait until the early phase of a subsequent bull. Same for international but less relative defense on the way down.
Reply Retweet Like
countrylakecap Apr 5
Thx John. Have you updated your charts for forward returns from these levels. The one with the two lines with projected and actual 10 or 12 year returns. Thx!
Reply Retweet Like
Matt Apr 5
Trump has an election to fight, and NY bearing down? How long can he hold it up? Next year or two could be rather interesting!
Reply Retweet Like
Alex Baudoin Apr 6
Lol
Reply Retweet Like
Alex Baudoin Apr 6
Just give up man
Reply Retweet Like
JBS Trades Apr 6
Any thoughts to the this view?
Reply Retweet Like
John Grubbs Apr 8
Although it is highly probable I got muted and am stuck in twitter purgatory- Is it plausible there’s no melt down- just a sideways market for 10 years without any growth? Same results?
Reply Retweet Like