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Paul Middleton Jan 12
Replying to @SnowbieWx
Indeed, and i beleive an followed soon after that.
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Nick F's WeatherEye 5h
Could we finally see the reversal working down through the stratosphere following the to start the month impact the troposphere to end this month? GOES and GFS agreeing now using the NAM plots. Long time coming, but not unprecedented. February pattern change with more HLB?
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R.J. 23h
Replying to @antmasiello
typical with downwelling 's ;)
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swanky Jan 19
Everyone is a millionaire, some make million dollars, others make million excuses!
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Daniela Domeisen 3h
Replying to @sosprey @MIT
The stratosphere indeed sometimes smiles back at you, it did this to me when plotting wave-1 and wave-2 amplitude (positive part) before a simulated split event! I then included the figure into my PhD defense .
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Matt Hugo Jan 1
Well to say it's all kicking off to start the New Year is an understatement. now underway and we've got interesting MJO and also influences from the AAM as well. More info on the imagery attached. A very interesting Jan/Feb period continues to be expected.
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Scott Osprey Jan 15
Can you see the face in the ? Break down of stratospheric jet brings a smile to weather forecasts!
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Sam Lillo Dec 21
GFS while continuing to advertise the , albeit with some run-to-run inconsistency, also continues to back up on timing. Actually a pretty substantial trend on this chart.
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Amy H Butler Jan 4
A number of people have asked me when impacts from are expected. But there is so much variability. If I could access my SSWC webpage, I'd show you some good examples of the different timescales after similar events. But I can't because of the .
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Official Weather UK Jan 1
The much anticipated has happened, the is splitting, models should start to show any potential outcomes from these events in the coming days ahead. Nothing is guaranteed but and - potentially severe - *could* be on the cards for mid January onwards.
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Adam's Weather Jan 2
Hello Everyone! I just want to point out that the that's currently in charge of our weather is 1045MB's. This is settled across the UK, which means that the Atlantic is cut off from the UK, which I'd say is quite usual in a event.
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Amy H Butler Jan 16
This is something I've seen before. Prior to , model fails to see any impacts. Once disrupted is initialized into forecast, suddenly the forecast is for basically the composite (historical mean) SSW pattern. (These are all forecasts for Feb, but diff init dates).
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Nick F's WeatherEye Jan 7
My latest thoughts re: potential for a driven pattern change bringing UK cold and snowy weather, looks like stratospheric PV split not working in NW Europe's favour for now, impacts of reversal may not materialise to induce change until late Jan now
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Amy H Butler Jan 4
Replying to @DrAHButler
In general I think people want to hear "in xx days, we will see impacts in [your location]". But I don't think we can make those statements w/ much skill. The best we can say is which regions see colder/warmer temps on average over a ~2 month period following the event.
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Matt Hugo Dec 22
Hoping it's the 28th, that's the date I went with in the sweep stake a few weeks back! 😁
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Daniela Domeisen Jan 7
interesting talk by classifying the precursors and response to events and explaining the impact of the Feb 2018 on the UK natgas market. makes me feel home again hearing about commodity impacts of the weather!
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Northeast England Weather Dec 22
The trend continues this evening in the gefs for colder options in the 1st week of January to develop resulting from a Some very cold members now showing. In the meantime high pressure looks set to dominate for rest of the month.
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Mr Physics Jan 15
The (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event occurred on 1st Jan this year and then usually takes 3-4 weeks to take effect in uk. This would suggest cold weather starting 21-25th Jan. No suggestion of a repeat of last year though.
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marco petagna Jan 10
So many people seem keen for to arrive (me +30C anyday!πŸ˜‰) but one look further afield to E/SE highlights just how disruptive & dangerous it can be..here in UK a few flakes can be enough to cause chaos...be careful what you wish for!πŸ‘πŸŒ¨
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UK Weather Updates Dec 30
The temperature at 10hPa over the North pole seems a bit higher than expected, closing in to -10C whereas models only expected the peak temps in the North Pole to be around -20C.
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