|
halvarflake
@
halvarflake
|
|
I do math. And was once asked by R. Morris Sr. : "For whom?"
At the moment, for optimyze.cloud
|
|
|
40.840
Tweetovi
|
1.414
Pratim
|
27.146
Osobe koje vas prate
|
| Tweetovi |
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
53 min |
|
On the contrary.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
Aber ja, so weit ich verstanden hatte, ging es im Argument darum, dass die Outflows sinnvollerweise in .de investiert werden sollten, wenn sie schon im Ausland nur schlechte Rendite bringen ;)
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
... direkte GDP-Effekte zumindest in Höhe der Investition?
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
Meine Perspektive: Investitionen im Ausland sind für eine Volkswirtschaft fast zwangsläufig riskanter als im Inland; das Geld fliesst erstmal raus und man hofft, dass Rendite in der Zukunft zurück fliesst. Investitionen im Inland haben normalerweise ...
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
Festverzinst und top-rating! Hervorragend. Siehe Michael Lewis "Big Short"-Anekdoten über "stupid Germans".
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
So weit ich die Diskussion verstanden habe, ist die Behauptung, dass Deutschland auf die Investitionen im Ausland eine besonders schlechte Rendite erziehlt.
CDOs sind ein gutes Beispiel: Die meisten Deutschen Institute (insbesondere die Landesbanken) fanden CDOs toll.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
Well, we have at least 2 examples where people "grew a Google" when they needed one. The requirement appears to be a market of ~300m+ people...
The question on whether this is a *palatable* solution is a different one.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
4 h |
|
Zu konservativ investieren und nen schlechten return haben sind kein Widerspruch.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
5 h |
|
There's also the issue that the actual solution to building a European Internet Giant is sufficiently radical that nobody is willing to discuss it; so better to light a few hundred million $ on fire and then claim things failed :-)
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
The way this project looks to me right now is the usual (sad) story of a bunch of incumbent Telco operators with a few universities siphoning off cash into white elephant projects.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
... that, you will build a cloud that nobody wants to use.
I mean, I am one of the most pro-European folks you will find, and left-of-center to begin with, but I tell you: The only way to get a useful Euro-Cloud is to have European Internet Giants.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
B) Building a Cloud requires cloud-scale applications. The infrastructure layer and orchestration is only going to be "right" if you have quick feedback cycles; there is a reason why all of the relevant players in Cloud extensively eat their own dog food. If you don't have ...
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
A) The CapEx required in Cloud is beyond what any government can (and should) "subsidize": AWS and MS combined CapEx is ~$40bn, approximately Germany's defense budget. In order to compete effectively, a European cloud will need $10bn+ annually, for many many years.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
... (2) cloud-scale software to actually run. Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Tencent, Yandex all fit the bill. There is no cloud provider that did not satisfy both criteria.
Trying to build a cloud provider without (1) and (2) will fail, for multiple reasons:
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
The reason why Europe has no "proper" cloud providers is because Europe failed at producing an Internet giant. From the limited data sample we have, becoming a cloud provider requires two things: (1) Huge Capex and...
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
wired.co.uk/article/europe… - I should read up about the details of this, but it seems a typical DOA project. A thread:
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
I think "Step 1" is probably false; the rest I agree on.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
TIL ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Date… - my intuition (that Germany is very bad at investing the $ from their export surplus usefully abroad) seems confirmed.
|
||
|
|
||
|
halvarflake
@halvarflake
|
6 h |
|
Salopp zusammengefasst: "90er: Exportier Porsches, und kaufe dotcom stocks. 00er: Exportier Porsches, kaufe CDOs. 10er: Exportier Porsches, kaufe ... (?)" :-)
|
||
|
|
||