Twitter | Search | |
This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on 15 December 2020. Please switch to a supported browser or device. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.
Gavin Andresen
Trying to keep it simple.
2,312
Tweets
252
Following
153,322
Followers
Tweets
Gavin Andresen 17h
Replying to @jgarzik
Re: low percentage being entertainment: I agree for low-single digit returns, where the ROI equals other almost-sure-bet investments. But 16% roi over two months looks like free money (but, again, maybe I’m just wrong about the risks).
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen 17h
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 27
Replying to @Sephirseraph
I’m getting better odds on . You can bet against me there.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 27
Does somebody actually think there is a 16% chance of this happening, or is it part of some trading strategy I don’t understand? Or am I bad at judging low-probability events? (I’d give this thousand-to-one odds; maybe I’m wrong)
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 26
You can bet at
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 25
Replying to @ErikVoorhees
I’ve wondered the same thing. You could consider concealability a facet of durability, because the risk is non-private money may be confiscated/stolen/extorted. But I think privacy is more than that.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 24
Are there countries that don’t have price gouging laws? Have those countries also experienced shortages? Increasing demand -> increasing price -> increasing production is the simplest way to eliminate shortages.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen retweeted
Alex Tabarrok Nov 23
Your Daily Reminder: More than 2800 Americans have died from COVID since Pfizer requested an Emergency Use Authorization for their vaccine. The FDA meets Dec. 10.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 23
Mit has a disobedience award:
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 21
But the politicians who decide how to spend tax money probably care even more about what others think and not effectiveness.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 19
Replying to @ChristianStahl6
No, more like Switzerland.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 19
Replying to @gavinandresen
Context of that tweet: yearning for a world where elections don’t matter very much, so we don’t spend so much time unproductively obsessing over them.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 19
I’m mostly libertarian because I want more of my life to be free of politics. If I wanted lots of politics I would join a commune or a homeowners association.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 11
Replying to @asymmetricinfo
Seems about right. We’re heading for a perfect storm of pandemic fatigue, weather, and nation-wide mixing at Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 9
Replying to @MindyForMA
If there is an effective vaccine (great news this morning on that front!) then I think they should focus on convincing people it is safe and effective and on widespread production and distribution.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 8
Replying to @TamarHaspel
I felt a very gentle rumble in Amherst MA.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Nov 5
Replying to @CryptoVanessa
Sorry, I gave them all away.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Oct 20
Replying to @ZacharyCohn @dakami
Maybe there is less bias if nobody can appeal. Maybe not. If you’re certain you know the answer, then I think you’re overconfident.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Oct 20
Replying to @ZacharyCohn @dakami
Maybe. I haven’t looked at how many signatures are rejected, how many rejections appealed, how many appeals are successful. Bias could happen at all of those stages.
Reply Retweet Like
Gavin Andresen Oct 20
Replying to @ZacharyCohn @dakami
The ruling says voters can’t appeal any more; I bet there is bias in the existing system because less privileged voters are less likely to take the time to appeal. Anyway, maybe some clever polysci grad student can untangle the effects.
Reply Retweet Like