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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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2. velj |
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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13. sij |
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Love the @glenweyl idea that history did not build up from the individual to the society (tribe, country, company), but the other way around: the individual could only emerge because a well structured society allowed it to.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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31. pro |
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Pet theory: Twitch is popular largely because it's an intimacy substitute. Someone talks to you from their bedroom, unconditionally, for however long you want, and with no effort required.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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6. pro |
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Same problem a few weeks ago. Fun watching other peoples' faces as they look at knuckles and try to simulate what probably happened.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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12. stu |
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"The theorems are widely, but not universally, interpreted as showing that Hilbert's program to find a complete and consistent set of axioms for all mathematics is impossible."
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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12. stu |
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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10. stu |
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With rivalry comes convergence
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Summary
Availability cascades are extremely powerful mechanisms that determine what ideas dominate in society. They work by combining the proliferation of specific information and social pressure in a runaway self-reinforcing cycle.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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What are historical examples?
Edward Bernays, the GOAT of Availability Entrepreneurs. As Freud’s cousin, he exploited his ideas to create the PR industry, the idea of “lifestyle” products, and sway elections. Documented in The Century of the Self: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Centu…
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Meta
Ironically, the paper is itself an availability cascade for available cascades that exploits the availability heuristic: “Offering recent examples of availability cascades that have resulted in socially harmful regulatory responses, we shall propose institutional reforms…”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Social availability errors:
When availability cascades create "widespread mistaken beliefs”.
“The resulting mass delusions may last indefinitely and produce detrimental laws and policies."
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Politicians riding runaway availability cascades
“To avoid charges of insensitivity, even to avoid having to
justify an unpopular position, [a politician] may make speeches and promote policies that convey deep concern about a waste spill that he actually considers harmless.”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Runaway availability cascades
If momentum behind a cascade is high, some people may avoid speaking out against it or even actively support it despite knowing they are inaccurate or outright wrong.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Public vs private preferences divergence
When cascades have a lot of momentum individuals may hide their private preferences if they go against the cascade. Some would argue this happened in the 2016 presidential election.
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Problems for democracy
“The argument thus far indicates that "public opinion" about the regulation of risks (the distribution of public policy preferences) constitutes a highly problematic basis for government policy.”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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“Populist Firestorms and Democratic Risk Regulation”
“Availability cascades create serious problems for democracy… They create a danger that apparently democratic outcomes will rest on misinformation”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Manipulation of political institutions
“A special-interest group supplies information to members of Congress, who hold hearings... journalists help spread the message... citizens join the fray... laws or regulations are adopted... instigating fresh opportunities [for] uproar"
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Manipulation of the media
“A common method for triggering availability cascades is for a group to pass carefully sifted information to selected journalists... The information will often contain grains of truth, but it may also harbor biases, even outright fabrications.”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Availability campaigns:
“Pressure groups… seek to instigate availability cascades."
“A common tactic is to produce a headline-grabbing uproar by dramatizing a problem.”
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Fred Ehrsam
@FEhrsam
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9. stu |
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Availability entrepreneurs:
“Activists who manipulate the content of public discourse [and] strive to trigger availability cascades likely to advance their agendas"
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