Twitter | Search | |
This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on 15 December 2020. Please switch to a supported browser or device. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.
Faisal Islam
Economics Editor, BBC. Fin crisis book .. Brexitologist. Host award-winning 2016 EUref TV interviews & 2017 live GE debate. United ST.
77,929
Tweets
10,121
Following
364,542
Followers
Tweets
Faisal Islam 7h
November ends, best monthly performance of FTSE 100 since 1989... up nearly 15%, (though down a bit today) all in on effective vaccines:
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 10h
Replying to @faisalislam
** Ah the one off Scottish £500 NHS/ care bonus will also include Scot Gov funding employer national insurance contributions so total cost for 300k full time equivalent posts, I’m told, is £180m
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 10h
Replying to @faisalislam
In England, policy would have cost about £1billion or so in spending review, and was pushed for by unions.. Asking UKG “not to tax it” partly pre-election point about further fiscal freedom or independence. Holyrood does have/use powers to vary tax rates and bands, but not scope
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 10h
Replying to @faisalislam
This is a good point - analyses out there of the relative importance of a. Mandatory lockdowns and b. Voluntary social distancing on economic slumps. for advanced economies more the latter than the former, but this analysis didn’t make that point:
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 10h
First Minister announces one off £500 bonus to around 300,000 frontline scottish NHS and care workers as pandemic thank you - it’s what public sector unions asked UK Gov for - separate from ongoing pay negotiations... so £150m cost.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 11h
Replying to @faisalislam
And on key question of what would happen in absence of restrictions: “It is not possible to know with any degree of confidence what path the economy would take”... balance between many businesses operating as normal and more voluntary social distancing from exponential pandemic
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 11h
Replying to @faisalislam
“an inescapable fact that exponential growth leads to a situation where the NHS would become overwhelmed and there would be insufficient capacity... corresponding cost to society of higher death rates is not one that any Government or country would willingly tolerate”.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 11h
Government has just published its analysis of new tier approach ahead of Commons vote tomorrow - economic impacts based on OBR scenarios published last week against counterfactual of “exponential growth” of Covid-19 left unchecked:
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 13h
Replying to @faisalislam
Same RS/ BA report had this comprehensive appendix of vaccine misinformation & conspiracy theories..advocated legislating and criminalising spreading misinformation, citing Singapore’s Protection from Online Falsehoods and Manipulation Act (POFMA) which lifted big tech exemptions
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 13h
Replying to @faisalislam
Super-interesting paper on vaccine rollout from the Royal Society and British Academy... North-South global divide on perceived safety, importance and effectiveness of vaccines...
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 13h
Replying to @faisalislam
This is the source of the paper quantifying challenge mentioned by minister Zahawi - saying 36% in UK are unlikely or uncertain to get a Covid vaccine... within that 9% are “v unlikely” and 64% “v likely” ...
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 14h
Replying to @faisalislam
Logic of that of course, is that, if for whatever reason, the rollout of the vaccine is slower, slow enough for the economic effect to be delayed... then there will be pressure to further prolong some version of the furlough scheme into Q2 2021.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 14h
Replying to @faisalislam
Interesting link there though between when the vaccine effect on the economy and confidence for customers to return to hospitality & retail, and the end of the furlough scheme... it is a miss on that in central scenario that leaves unemployment sharply higher at 7.5%...
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 14h
Replying to @faisalislam
How did the OBR upside scenario get to a peak in unemployment of 5.1% - barely above where we are now? the economic effects of spring vaccine from both no compulsory lockdowns & much less voluntary social distancing, kick in en masse at moment furlough scheme ends at end March..
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 14h
Replying to @faisalislam
From that interview, vaccine plan, strategy and availability appear to be well on track... could make significant impact on which of the OBR paths from last week the UK economy takes - eg upside one has barely any increase in unemployment...
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam 14h
Important interview from Vaccines minister on just now...no question will be made compulsory in general, but likely to be required for various normal activities..plan to try to persuade just over a third of population that are sceptics
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam Nov 29
Replying to @june_mummery
Im probably back on the lockdown debate tomorrow, so there’s a relief.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam Nov 29
Replying to @june_mummery
Actually I have been patiently and politely replying to you. There is a negotiation, even if you say not, and it’s of interest to some people, if not you, to calculate the value of the gap. Regards.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam Nov 29
Replying to @june_mummery
it literally is on the negotiating table though - eg official agenda below from Round 9 - 5 sessions in blue... indeed it’s been on the official agenda for every round, with 33 sessions, or at least 66 hours of negotiating since February.
Reply Retweet Like
Faisal Islam Nov 29
Replying to @BHouten58
nothing beats a 3-2 away coming from behind - extremely lucky to have seen 1993 and 2013 versions at City too.
Reply Retweet Like