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EVent Horizon Feb 12
Replying to @evdefender
Brace yourselves for another spike.
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 12 Mainland China : Cases: 59,805 (+15,152) Deaths: 1,365 (+252) +33.9% increase in total cases from ... yesterday. +22.6% increase in deaths from ... yesterday. The decree Xi issued the virus on Feb.3 has sadly failed. (report >7hrs late)
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 12 Mainland China : Updated fatality rates and total ""reported"" cases after a nearly 8 hr delayed report. I noted the 2.2% early on... It's still there.
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 12 Mainland China : Here is a comparison of the model I posted on Feb.2 (1st post in thread, through Feb.1 data) against what was officially reported. Feb.12 prediction (11days in advance): 58,261 Feb.12 "reported" 59,805 Low by 2.58%
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Heads up on narrative as CCP tries to get its money's worth. Rapid rise in 'confirmed' cases will lead to "more convenient treatment" and "lower the fatality rate".
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
"Severely" under reporting means fraud. But you shouldn't be hearing about it from administration officials today, Feb.13 2020, because signs of fraud in the data set have been evident all along.
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 13 Hubei Province : Cases: 51,986 (+4,826 on day) Deaths: 1,426 (+116) Total cases reduced by 1043. This wipes out the recovery phase posted from Feb.4 to Feb11. and reverts to the original quadratic growth model I posted on Feb.2
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
When I say 'revert', I don't mean 'appears to revert' or 'may revert'. I mean that the current mainland is within 190 cases or 0.3% of the model I posted 12 days ago. We await the remainder of Mainland, 8 hrs late yesterday, which hasn't adopted same methodology
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
I can only imagine the heads rolling in upr CCP at this very moment as they decide what to post. Adjusting 'methodology' for rest of Mainland will spike... Big. I've noted multiple narrative phases. They've unwound the recovery that started Feb.4.
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EVent Horizon Feb 13
Replying to @evdefender
Here are the updated Feb.13 fatality rates for the Mainland, which includes Feb.13 Hubei, but prior to the remainder of the Mainland (late again)
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EVent Horizon
Feb.13 Mainland China : 267 cases in addition to Hubei, some confusion on death total (will update) Prediction (12 days in advance): 63,774 "Reported" 63,851 Low by 77 cases. That is 0.12%. The data is fraudulent. China is hiding something about the Mainland.
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb.13 Mainland China : Cases: 63,851 (+5,090) Deaths: 1,380 (+116) They've messed with both totals by removing 1,043 cases and 108 deaths. I've distributed those changes to yesterday for the incremental illustration.
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb.13 Mainland China : Updated fatality rates & cumulative cases. Removing the 'extra' deaths restores the wayward -0 Day CFR to... you guessed it: 2.1% +/- 0.1%
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb.13 Mainland China : Description of the phases I've referred to in the data. - Phase 1 reported Feb.2 - Phase 2 flagged on Feb.5 (followed Xi Feb. 3 mtg) - Phase 3 began Feb.12 Feb.13 is 77 cases (0.12%) from model I proposed 12 days ago... Reversion to Growth.
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 14 Hubei Province : Cases: 54,406 (+2,420) Deaths: 1,457 (+139)
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 14 Mainland China : Cases: 66,492 (+2,641) Deaths: 1,523 (+143) As # in lock-down increase across the nation and wartime measures increase in Hubei, China maintains the narrative that new cases are improving.
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 14 Mainland China : Fatality rates and cumulative cases for Mainland China.
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EVent Horizon Feb 14
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 14 Mainland China : Narrative control remains as China continues to report 'confirmed' case improvement ahead of a spike outside of Hubei while becoming more militant. Current effort is another "recovery narrative" inside of what I've called Phase 3.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 0430 est: Cases Worldwide: 67,182 Mainland China: 66,493 International: 689 Fatalities: 1,526
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
On early Feb. 15, 41.4% of the International cases outside of Mainland China are on this one ship.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
It's difficult to express the scale of the disconnect in the 'reported' Mainland China 'confirmed' case numbers.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 1000 est: Cases Worldwide: 67,191 Mainland China: 66,496 International: 695 Fatalities: 1,527
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Better illustration of point I've made regarding phases of outbreak & how I've been able to accurately predict China's reports at various points. This is new 'confirmed' Mainland cases excluding Hubei Before and After Xi's Feb. 3 Standing Committee Mtg.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Ran out of characters to add commentary... But, do I really need to explain what is going on here?
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 Hubei Province : Cases: 56,249 (+1,843) Deaths: 1,596 (+139) Underneath the spike for clinically diagnosed on Feb.12, you will still see the Xi magic to which the virus responded immediately with a downward trend following the Feb.3 meeting.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
I may as well just write their propaganda for them at this point. Surprised they'd quote the 14,840 as a single day figure though.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 Mainland China : Cases: 68,500 (+2,009) Deaths: 1,665 (+42) They are allowing the fatality rate (-0day) to creep up again slightly. Maybe they will resurrect a few tomorrow once more.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 Mainland China : Here is one chart you should be sharing. Xi cured immediately following one meeting on Feb. 3 2020. It could be the single greatest feat in human history worthy of the Nobel. Or it could be fraud.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 2020 est: Cases Worldwide: 69,197 Mainland China: 68,500 "confirmed" International: 697 Fatalities: 1,665 There is a predictable "recovery" happening in what I've called Phase 3... for now.
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EVent Horizon Feb 15
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 15 2120 est: Cases Worldwide: 69,268 Mainland China: 68,500 "confirmed" International: 768 Fatalities: 1,665 +137 on the Diamond Princess today, 27% increase in cases outside of China
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 16 0530 est: Cases Worldwide: 69,282 Mainland China: 68,507 "confirmed" International: 775 Fatalities: 1,669
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 16 1800 est: Cases Worldwide: 71,223 Mainland China: 70,442 "confirmed" International: 781 Fatalities: 1,770 Hubei Province: +1933 Cases, +100 Deaths
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 16 2030 est: Cases Worldwide: 71,330 Mainland China: 70,548 "confirmed" International: 782 Fatalities: 1,775 Hubei Province: +1933 Cases, +100 Deaths Mainland: + 115 Cases, + 5 Deaths
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 16 : Updated fatality rate chart which is getting a bit busy. Also interesting, 2048 Mainland 'confirmed' new cases today vs. an estimated ~760 million in some kind of lockdown: 0.000269% of people impacted by a lockdown reportedly became infected
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Adding to thread for posterity: Feb. 16 Mainland new cases predicted exactly at +115
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 17 0230 est: Cases Worldwide: 71,351 Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed" International: 799 Fatalities: 1,775 14 more Americans from Diamond Princess test positive for
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 17 0235 est: Cases Worldwide: 71,355 Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed" International: 803 Fatalities: 1,775 Japan adds 4 more (+6 new) in addition to 14 more Americans from Diamond Princess
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EVent Horizon Feb 16
Replying to @evdefender
I made one for those more artistically inclined... an 2020 original.
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EVent Horizon Feb 17
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 17 Diamond Princess 0530 est: 47% of passengers tested 26% of passengers tested have 12% of all passengers have 4% of passengers with are seriously ill.
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EVent Horizon Feb 17
Replying to @evdefender
Feb. 17 0550 est: Cases Worldwide: 71,440 Mainland China: 70,552 "confirmed" International: 888 Fatalities: 1,775 Total cases excluding China at 888 past China on Jan.23 (23 days ago) when Wuhan (10m) was locked down
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EVent Horizon Feb 17
Replying to @evdefender
Xi commanded to stop spreading across Mainland China in 2 weeks at the Feb. 3 meeting. This means we can estimate the # for "Xi's Miracle" again. You basically just need to decide how you want to split the number 115 into roughly 2 parts.
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