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Eva Vivalt
Senior lecturer (asst prof) in econ at ANU, Y Combinator Research PI, AidGrade founder, effective altruist. Likes math & forecasting. Ex-World Bank, NYU DRI.
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
Overall, I think we struck a good balance (at least according to feedback from respondents!). We'll be posting some templates and examples researchers can use on the Social Science Prediction Platform - stay tuned!
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
This work also gave us the opportunity to further pilot how to describe the experiments. One of the biggest challenges in eliciting these beliefs is actually describing the projects in enough detail that people have the information they need, while not losing their interest.
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
Bottom line: not much matters, except the width of the slider bounds. Wider slider bounds seem to nudge people towards larger estimates, and this isn't an artifact of some estimates being censored with narrow slider bounds because the estimates are larger throughout.
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
But the approach used to elicit forecasts could really matter. We test out: providing larger or smaller reference values in the project description; asking for forecasts in different units (raw units or SD); text box or slider entry; large or small slider bounds.
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
Summary: researchers often want to elicit ex ante forecasts of research results, and in fact we are setting up the Social Science Prediction Platform to help researchers collect forecasts for their own experiments ().
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
New NBER working paper, "Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy", with and Nick Otis.
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Eva Vivalt 12 h
Late to see this, but interesting to think about how much applies to econ. Guzey looks at the life sciences and concludes things like "science is not slowing down", "large parts of modern scientific literature are wrong", and "peer review is a disaster":
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Eva Vivalt proslijedio/la je tweet
Effective Altruism 1. velj
“As more time has passed, I have become increasingly confident that my gut antipathy to the idea that it’s better to ‘give later’ is just a cognitive bias.” Researcher explains why she’s revised her opinion on how to time her giving:
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Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak 23. sij
Fellow economists and development professionals on : I'd encourage you to follow , a journalist who writes beautifully about development issues. Here's an example:
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Eva Vivalt 23. sij
Oh, hey! Nice to randomly see a figure from your research in Dutch.
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Eva Vivalt 20. sij
Between golfball-sized hail and the bushfires, they could call it "A Song of Ice and Fire".
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Eva Vivalt 15. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @SylvainCF
It was so great to finally meet you in person, and this was such a fantastic suggestion. Will be sure to implement it in a subsequent version. :)
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Sylvain Chabé-Ferret 5. sij
A super cool thread on a topic crucial for Econ too: we need to predict magnitudes and not only directions of effects.
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Eva Vivalt 5. sij
Differences between perceived and actual support for research transparency practices, presented by at .
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Eva Vivalt 4. sij
Ever wonder "Were those results p-hacked?" Brodeur et al. propose a useful new check ("speccheck" on Stata. R/etc. coming soon).
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Eva Vivalt 4. sij
Results from pilot of Social Science Prediction Platform: 4 crossed randomizations, nothing affects predicted treatment effects except slider bar widths. ( presenting joint work with Nick Otis and myself.)
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Eva Vivalt 3. sij
Odgovor korisniku/ci @evavivalt
Oh right, I'm supposed to share this other pic, aren't I? If interested in , hope to see you Saturday at 2:30 pm, Marriott Marquis, Marriott Grand Ballroom 13. (Unlike what it says in the program, we'll be going first, but the whole session should be good!)
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Eva Vivalt 3. sij
Beautiful San Diego weather for . They should always have it somewhere warm.
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Maksym Polyakov 1. sij
WOW, the smoke of reached southern tip of NZ!
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Emily Andrews 29. pro
I heard some advice today about academia that l thought was really important: We’re all smart. Distinguish yourself by being kind. I couldn’t agree more.
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