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daniel a. smith
In 2016, GOP voters tipped the election for Trump on Election Day. As of this am, over 1.3m registered voters in FL have yet to vote, even though they've voted in the last 4 general elections. 51% of them are Republicans.
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daniel a. smith 4 Nov 18
It was a good estimate, Martin. And yes, this should be a warning to all Democrats crowing about final early voting turnout today...
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Politics_Follower 4 Nov 18
The difference is that the final public polls implied Trump would crush it on election day, even though Clinton led the early vote by 4. Final RCP average was Trump up by 0.4, he won by 1.2
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Vold Emor (fragile peace with ChiSoxFanMike) 4 Nov 18
Where are you getting a 10 point r edge?
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daniel a. smith 4 Nov 18
Actually, it's even greater than a 10 percentage point R advantage of lingering SuperVoters...it's 16 percentage points. (14% of those outstanding voters are NPAs)
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tweetchildomine Repeat after me, 28 USC 1 4 Nov 18
It is Florida. Probably 20% of that total are not voting because they passed away in the last 2 years and the dead are only allowed to vote in New Jersey.
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daniel a. smith 5 Nov 18
Nope. This only includes those who are still registered.
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daniel a. smith 4 Nov 18
Yup. Trump won by over 300k on Election Day in 2016.
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Vold Emor (fragile peace with ChiSoxFanMike) 4 Nov 18
Not to be naive, but my assumption is that day of voting will be different given enthusiasm is up on both sides this limiting the registration edge.
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Vold Emor (fragile peace with ChiSoxFanMike) 4 Nov 18
While true, much of this will depend on independent margins on day of. If Democrats have a five point independent margin, for instance, Republicans will have little recourse
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Matthew Danner 4 Nov 18
Surely, Tuesday turnout is over 1.3 million?
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