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Ed Hawkins
Climate scientist, University of Reading | Designed & | IPCC AR6 Lead Author | MBE | Partner to | Views own
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Ed Hawkins Aug 13
ran earlier this year during the COVID lockdown and recovered 5.25 million rainfall observations from across the UK and Ireland, with more than 16,000 volunteers contributing their spare time ()
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Ed Hawkins Aug 13
'on record' would be far more accurate than 'since 1960s' for the headline I think.
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Ed Hawkins retweeted
Tim Osborn Aug 12
No London did not have a hotter stretch in the 1960s, your poorly worded headline is misleading! These particular records may have begun in 1961 & current hot stretch unmatched in that record “London sees hottest stretch since 1960s”
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Ed Hawkins Aug 12
Next year or year after? By which I mean 2017 or 2018, or maybe 2015.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 12
Replying to @UniofReading
The official minimum temperature measurement was rounded down to 20.0°C, meaning it was the 3rd warmest night ever recorded for in records dating back to 1908.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 12
Trouble sleeping last night? Provisional minimum temperature at was 20.1°C, making it a rare ‘tropical night’ for . As global temperatures continue to rise because of our greenhouse gas emissions, these types of night will become more and more common.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
(and, the study uses a single member from each model to assess a likely first year ice-free. This is fraught with difficulties related to levels of internal variability in sea ice.)
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
It might melt a bit more, but I think our expectation is that the sea ice extent stabilises when global temperatures are stabilised.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
HadGEM3 is a better model than its predecessors - it is superior across a wide range of metrics & has improved representations of many processes. And, yes, it is very interesting that it is better for the LIG, but its ECS is at very edge of Sherwood et al assessment range.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
Yes, but Figure 4 in the paper does highlight the dates issue. However, the ECS axis makes it very clear that the date depends critically on climate sensitivity (although neither the figure, the caption or the main text mention the scenario used - it's buried in the Methods.)
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
Replying to @WeatherProf @mammuthus
Yes, HadGEM3 is one of the CMIP6 models with a very high ECS (around 5.5K):
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
Replying to @WeatherProf @mammuthus
Several studies have said that ~2C is when the Arctic will see regular 'ice-free' Septembers. They will happen occasionally at lower temperatures too. They key is when 2C is reached. HadGEM3 has very high climate sensitivity so reaches that much earlier than most other models.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
So many factors affect sea ice melt. I think the press release is problematic in terms of framing this interesting study in terms of a time for a modern sea-ice free date.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 11
Replying to @mammuthus
Yes, but HadGEM3 shows 2°C above pre-industrial in 2035 on the SSP5-8.5 scenario used. Suggests ice-free at 2°C, just like IPCC has said before.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 10
Replying to @BBCAmos @ESA_EO and 3 others
2 Olympic sized swimming pools every second?
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Ed Hawkins Aug 8
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Ed Hawkins Aug 7
Yes, data ends in 2019. Have fixed the titles in some of the USA state graphics too.
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Ed Hawkins Aug 7
Have put the latest set on , though still need to add a bit more metadata probably:
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Richard Betts Aug 6
As Steven Schneider said, “the end of the world” and “good for us” are probably the two least likely outcomes A discourse sharply divided between doom and dismissal risks obstructing climate action, rather than motivating it - by and me
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Ed Hawkins Aug 6
4 years ago. Read the story of the spiral (with & ):
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