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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
Educator, investor & business economist; chief economist, American Chemistry Council and former NABE president. Views are my own. E: drthomaskswift@iCloud.com
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 16
declined in early August to its lowest level since early 2019. The decline was more pronounced in the measure. and policies have heightened uncertainty but remain relatively optimistic given favorable and trends.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 16
stars fell 4.0% to a 1.19 mm unit pace in July. The weakness, however, was in the multiple-family segment as single-family starts improved. improved, rising 8.4% to a 1.34 mm unit pace. That building permits exceed starts is a good sign.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
The Cass Index for fell (by 0.8%) for the eight months in a row and is now off 5.9% Y/Y with weakness in many modes of both domestically and internationally. The report again highlighted a message of the index “signaling an economic contraction.”
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
were virtually unchanged in June as rising ’ inventories offset a decline in retail. Overall sales in June rose slightly and total business inventories-to-sales ratio eased slightly to 1.39. A supply chain imbalance lingers slightly.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
Total also slipped, by 0.3 points, to 77.5% in July. This was lower than one year ago when capacity utilization was 78.8%. Over the past year overall capacity rose by 2.2% while was up only 0.5% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
The general activity index of Philadelphia Survey eased in August, off 5.0 points to +16.8. New orders and accelerated, but and reported slower growth. Looking ahead, firms in the region were slightly less optimistic.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
The Empire State Survey reported that general improved slightly in August, as the index rose by 0.5 points to +4.8: faster growth in new orders, and inventories but contracted. Optimism about future conditions eased.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
fell 0.2% in July as lower and activity offset a gain in output. Within manufacturing, which fell 0.4%, declines were broad, with exceptions in aerospace, paper, and furniture. Headline output was up a softer 0.5% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 15
Some great news: Coming in well ahead of expectations, headline service & sales rose 0.7% in July. With only a few exceptions (motor , health & personal care, and sporting goods), gains were broad based. Sals were up 3.4% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 14
With the 2Q data now available, I updated my quarterly for basic and synthetic . gas and heightened competiveness foster with large gains in and this year and next. Pace of gains will slow in 2021-24.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 13
As expected, rose 0.3% in July with broad gains across sectors and were up 1.8% Y/Y, while core consumer prices (ex. energy and food prices) were ahead by 2.2% Y/Y. Inflation remains restrained while average earnings continue to improve. Good for the .
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 13
Despite rising tensions and talk of , small pushed through these headwinds and rose 1.4 points to 104.7 in July, with expectations for business , real , and expansion making solid gains. Good news on 1/2 of the .
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 12
Updated my quarterly shipments . In light of a weakening environment in general, and motor vehicle assemblies, rig count, and business investment in particular, the outlook now calls for soft this year and next, before a 2021 recovery.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 12
US loadings eased again and are off from a year-earlier. uncertainty, tensions and switch from to natural as a fuel for electricity continue to weigh on . , ores, and forest products were bright spots.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift retweeted
John Richardson Aug 8
China trade war duties on US LDPE "very likely" as global recession concerns grow:
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 9
reports that U.S. of major totaled 7.4 billion pounds in June, up 4.3% Y/Y and 3.0% YTD. Sales and captive (internal) use of major plastic resins totaled 7.1 billion pounds during June, off 1.7% Y/Y but up 3.7% YTD.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 9
US light sales eased to a 16.8 mm unit pace in July, broadly in line with expectations. Little pent-up demand and competition from used vehicles weigh on sales but strong labor market, rising wages, and low interest rates should allow sales to remain at elevated levels.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 8
in fell 1.2% to $11.41 billion in June. At the same time, also fell 1.2% to $12.91 billion. The inventory-to-sales ratio was stable at 1.13 but up from 1.11 a year ago. An imbalance along the supply chain persists but may be improving.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 8
Despite a slew of bad news, initial claims dropped by 8,000 in the week ended 3 August to a nearly four-month low of 209,000. The four-week moving average held fairly steady, suggesting a solid, tight market.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Aug 8
The OECD composite (CLI) for June points to stable growth momentum in the OECD area and stable growth momentum in many major emerging markets. The attached chart illustrates the weakness in and .
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