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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
Educator, investor & business economist; chief economist, American Chemistry Council and former NABE president. Views are my own. E: drthomaskswift@iCloud.com
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift 12h
unexpectedly slipped in October as households’ optimism about the future wanes. The index fell 1.0 point to 100.3 and reflects growing uncertainty about the durability of the and the upcoming U.S. election.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift 15h
Looking a recent annualized six-month growth rate in CAB leading of the , trend is consistent with in in , and . Diffusion index in October eased to 59%.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift 15h
Provisional October reading of the CAB leading of the rose 0.1% after revised gains of 0.8% in September and 1.9% in August. As sixth gain it signals but slowing improvement in , and
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 26
Following several months of strong gains, new sales fell unexpectedly in September, down 3.5%. Sales eased across all regions sans West. of unsold new homes edged higher and now represent a 3.6-month supply. Compared to a year ago, sales were up 32.1% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 26
Updated my quarterly model. Strong demand for PPE and other markets support . Plastics one of few industries gaining this year. Although some projects delays, capacity gains due to shale gas competitiveness and higher exports foster LT .
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 26
Updated my quarterly synthetic model. Good consensus outlook coupled with recovery in motor vehicle supporting synthetic rubber production but overseas competition will limit upside to U.S. production.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 24
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 23
Updated my quarterly medium- and heavy-duty assembly model. Another V-shaped recovery exceeding expectations. With improving sector, orders will strengthen fostering a more solid for and assemblies.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 23
Updated my quarterly light assembly model. A V-shaped recovery exceeding Spring expectations thus far. With sales holding up and fundamentals remaining in place, and assemblies will continue to gain but pace will slow and flatten out.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 22
Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) rose 0.7% in September following a 1.4% increase in August and a 2.0% gain in July. The gain in the LEI was driven primarily by declining unemployment claims and rising housing permits. LEI signals slowing momentum in the
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 22
With growth across all regions, existing sales jumped in September, up 9.4% to 6.54 million, the highest level since 2006. Compared to a year ago, sales were up 20.9% Y/Y Strong demand drained inventories which are down 19.2% Y/Y and now represent a right 2.7-month supply.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 22
Updated my quarterly model. Based on for and other end-use markets, outlook for fiber has improved. Competition from imported final products limits long-term gains
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 22
Updated my quarterly model. Based on strong outlook for and consensus expectations on incomes, for carpet shipments has improved with cyclical rebound. But competition from other types is strong and will limit gains in 2022.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 21
Performance reflects trends in . The attached heat map of US specialty volumes shows evolution of these 28 functional and market segments and indicative of trends in manufacturing. Lingering softness in during 3Q.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 21
Of 28 specialty segments, 13 expanded in September and compared to a year ago, there were gains in three market and functional specialty chemical segments – , and flavors & fragrances.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 21
With slowing recovery in U.S. , volumes were flat in September, off from a 1.9% gain in August and a 2.8% gain in July; leaving volumes off 8.1% Y/Y. In September, 13 of 28 segments expanded; 15 fell back.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 20
September starts rose 1.9% to a 1.42 mm unit pace, largely in line with expectations. Forward-looking permits far exceeded expectations, rising 5.2% to a 1.55 mm unit pace with gains across all regions. Starts were up 11.1% Y/Y and permits up 8.1% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 19
update of chart of four key used to determine business cycle peaks + troughs, normalized to prior peak. All four improving but was wobbly last month. More improvement needed to regain progress of last couple years.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 16
DOT releases its Transportation Services Index (TSI) with a lag and the August numbers for freight volumes show a decline after three monthly gains. Activity was off 7.2% Y/Y.
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Dr Thomas Kevin Swift Oct 16
Some consider a leading indicator. Rebound continues with shipping volumes up 7.1% in September and off only 1.8% Y/Y. Positive news for the # economy and with positive trend and lean inventories needing replenishing, there may be more positive news.
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