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Eric Feigl-Ding
Epidemiologist | Health Economist | Senior Fellow | PH scientist | Harvard ‘07 JHopkins ‘04 | NYT-Vioxx💊whistleblower | Updates
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Eric Feigl-Ding retweeted
Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
🚨New higher R0 from CDC reanalysis... it’s a 5.7!🚨(95% Confidence Interval: 3.8–8.9). Wowzers. This much higher R0 value carries lot of implications for vaccines and treatments and containment measures needed. 📌Thread 🧵
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Eric Feigl-Ding 27m
Swedish hospitals abandon chloroquine. However there will be a new Oxford trial starting soon in a few weeks.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 33m
⚠️“No Master Plan”. Two takeaways from this article: 📍1. Ferguson (of Imperial ) does not believe UK currently has an exit strategy 📍and doesn't believe any other country has solved this either.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 3h
Replying to @StefanFSchubert
I agree it’s a very messy indicator. Also elderly age of Italy also another confounder.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 3h
Replying to @Leapdragon
Interesting. Anyone write a review on this yet?
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Eric Feigl-Ding 3h
Italy’s naive/crude CFR is still slowly going higher it seems. Death again is a lagging indicator behind cases. Still, 12% is incredibly high. Combination of missing a lot of cases, and it’s health system being overwhelmed and insufficient capacity to help everyone.
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Eric Feigl-Ding retweeted
Eric Feigl-Ding 16h
This is very worrisome. Among recovered former cases, “nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies. In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.” 🤔
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Eric Feigl-Ding 3h
4 Future Scenarios: and “Do Nothing” is definitely not one of them. Great insights from Prof (Chair of Global Health at Edinburgh).
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Eric Feigl-Ding retweeted
Eric Feigl-Ding 15h
Replying to @DrEricDing
8) “Vaccine developers may need to pay particular attention to these patients,” Huang said. If the real virus could not induce antibody response, the weakened version in the vaccine might not work in these patients either.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 5h
Regarding the latest antibody serology study, has a few skepticism. Mostly around reproducibility of the assay and if the test actually truly correlated with recovery.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 5h
Replying to @DrEricDing
9) And to be clear, R0 is the R reproductive number at time 0 before countermeasures. So this is not the R(effective) at current time under mitigation like distancing and testing+tracing+quarantine.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 5h
Replying to @DrEricDing
8) clarifying that this is from a Los Alamos group’s reanalysis. But posted on CDC’s journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
New York City somehow tops the skyscraper plot of the epidemic. Creative visual. But also so disturbing fully visualized like this. (HT to ).
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Eric Feigl-Ding retweeted
FAS 6h
Our experts have been getting quite a few questions about masks: Why wear them? Why wear them if you're *asymptomatic*? Masks are an easy way to prevent infecting those around you, as well as a reminder to not touch your face.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @SteveJGardner
See top post. It’s CDC website.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @DrEricDing
7) Note that this R0 is much higher than the recent Imperial College review of published R0 of 3.87. Ergo, a 5.7 is on considerably different level of infectiousness.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @DrEricDing
6) “recent study based on structural analysis of the virus particles suggests SARS-CoV-2 has a much higher affinity to the receptor needed for cell entry than the 2003 SARS virus, providing a molecular basis for the high infectiousness of .
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @DrEricDing
5) this highlights the importance of early and effective surveillance, contact tracing, and quarantine! ➡️ Translation: we need to now be even more vigilant than previously thought given the higher revised R0.
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @DrEricDing
4) “Results show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic persons can be effective when the fraction of unidentified persons is low. However, when 20% of transmission is driven by unidentified infected, high levels of social distancing efforts will be needed”
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Eric Feigl-Ding 6h
Replying to @DrEricDing
3) “At R0 = 2.2, this threshold is only 55%. But at R0 = 5.7, this threshold rises to 82% (i.e., >82% of the population has to be immune, through either vaccination or prior infection, to achieve herd immunity to stop transmission).”
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