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Doug Johnson Hatlem
Nate Silver is wholly irresponsibly priming Democrats to refuse the results of the election again if there is, e.g. a small, normal shift in PA polling over the next few days and then a redux of the 2016 polling error. Totally gross.
4:19 PM - 26 Oct 2020
Doug Johnson Hatlem Oct 27
Replying to @djjohnso
To be fair (and I have no idea if he even saw my tweets on this) ... 12 hours later, Nate Silver acknowledged with fairly in-depth, reasonable analysis that we are pretty close to a normal polling error away from Trump winning PA, and perhaps the election.
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Joseph Oct 26
Replying to @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit
3 pollsters show this to be a tight race-traflagar, Susquehanna, and Rasmussen. Yes they could be wrong,but it is not a singular voice. What he is saying is wholly irresponsible. probably still smarting from his rejection by the libs for giving trump a 30% chance in 2016
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Doug Johnson Hatlem Oct 26
Replying to @josephcitrano @Peoples_Pundit
In Pennsylvania alone: Add -Ipsos -InsiderAdvantage -PPP -Fox -Change -HarrisX All with recent polls showing a 5% race or less. That's MoE/toss-up territory.
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Dingers Oct 26
Replying to @djjohnso
I think you ignored “If the polls aren't tightening since the debate”
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Doug Johnson Hatlem Oct 26
Replying to @_Dinger_s
I did not ignore that. It is a poorly worded statement. They could, in fact, not be currently tightening but do so in the next week for several different reasons. They don't have to tighten much to be a normal polling error away.
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Doug Johnson Hatlem Oct 27
Replying to @LarsUllern86 @Peoples_Pundit
I am not making a specific forecast this cycle (just commentary). As such I have not (and will not) be assigning battleground states to Trump or Biden. I continue to think a wide range of possibilities exist from a 400 EV Biden blowout to Trump winning.
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Aaron Astor Oct 26
Replying to @djjohnso
This is where the national PV numbers are useful. Sure, it's possible that PA could shift a few points to Trump and put him over the top there. But is it likely to happen while Biden holds the big national PV lead he holds...and still be the tipping point state?
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Eric Medlin Oct 26
Replying to @AstorAaron @djjohnso
I think this person is conflating "ten people online complaining about polls" with "Democrats won't accept the results of the election!!!!???!!!"
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Ludicrous Hilarious🏴‍☠️🇺🇸🇮🇱🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🇨🇮 Oct 26
Replying to @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit
It wasn't an error
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