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Dan Gardner
Keynote speaker, New York Times bestselling author (Risk/The Science of Fear, Future Babble, Superforecasting), and consultant ().
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Dan Gardner 12 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @Lazin_Ryder
I’ve been to Kansas City and I still make that mistake. But then I’m not the President of the United States of America.
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Dan Gardner 14 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @dgardner
Another one. In 2017, reporters discovered that Trump had fake Time magazine covers featuring Himself on display in his golf clubs. That makes this image, circulating among Trump's fans, even more gobsmacking.
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Dan Gardner 14 h
An illustration of the epistemological black hole we are being sucked into: A passionate Trumpian rails against "fake news" ... with a cartoon which was altered to replace GOP elephants with Democratic donkeys.
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Dan Gardner 17 h
Please, let's not compare what an authoritarian state does in an emergency with what can be done in a free country with appropriate safeguards (like environmental reviews and safety standards) in ordinary circumstances. They're apples and hand grenades.
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Dan Gardner 17 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @GIO3969 @NateSilver538
Right. “You can make money with this” always gets attention. But how the markets work, and what that means about judgement in general? I’m pretty confident the people who already get it will get it; those who don’t, won’t.
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Dan Gardner 17 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @GIO3969 @NateSilver538
In my experience, that would only convince the people who don’t need to be convinced.
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Dan Gardner 17 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @TomChivers @JamesRamsden_
Your undeniably right. Time is precious to everyone. You must give equal value for every minute you ask for. Prattling on about your weekend or whatever isn't delightful whimsy. It's a statement that the listener's time isn't valuable.
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Dan Gardner 17 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NateSilver538 @PTetlock
This misunderstanding, and rejection, is not universal, of course. People can and do grasp how probability works and accept its implications, even the uncomfortable stuff. Not coincidentally, those people tend to be much better forecasters. (See Superforecasting, with )
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Dan Gardner 18 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NateSilver538
I've beaten this horse raw and I'm pretty sure it's dead. Most people not only don't understand how to judge probabilistic forecasts, they scoff and snicker when it's explained. The reason? Treated seriously, probability leads to a lot of "we can't be sure." And people hate that.
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Dan Gardner 18 h
It's ironic that this profile of -- which discusses Silver's complain that his work is misunderstood -- opens with a textbook example of how people misunderstand and misjudge probabilistic forecasts.
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Dan Gardner 18 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @thackerpd @CaulfieldTim i 2 ostali
Um, I was just a (reasonable) comment on your (reasonable) comment. Why respond with such snark?
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Dan Gardner 19 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @Borderscrossed @jhan79601992
Ok. Very true. And much more can be done with urban agriculture and tech to come.
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Dan Gardner 19 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @CaulfieldTim
Ugh. Polysyllabic prattle. (But of course my lack of respect for their different ways of knowing undoubtedly demonstrates I am a minion of the patriarchy offended by their autonomy, just like some precedent in the 18th century, which showed... etc, ad nauseam.)
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Dan Gardner 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @CarrylW
Both. But an enormous amount of what is now forest was farmland.
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Dan Gardner 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @sideen_dan
Same here, also in northern Ontario. The school gave each kid an orange at Christmas and it was a very big deal.
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Dan Gardner 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @CarrylW
It’s a huge topic. But this is a start: ’s&qid=1580686066&sr=8-2
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Dan Gardner 3. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @DTCochrane
Could certainly contribute. But with a much greater population, and growing? It would take truly unfathomable technological leaps and reforms.
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Dan Gardner 2. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @Goddess616
No. I am repeating the history that is the basis for my claim, which, I suspect, most people don’t know. If you do, super.
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Dan Gardner 2. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @JohnHawver
That’s the point. Ag shifted to higher-productivity land.
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Dan Gardner 2. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @dgardner
To see for yourself, look at any random photo of the New England countryside circa 1900. Mostly agriculture. And today? Mostly forest.
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