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Dan Gardner
@
dgardner
Ottawa
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Keynote speaker, New York Times bestselling author (Risk/The Science of Fear, Future Babble, Superforecasting), and consultant (tactix.ca).
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2.172
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914
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21.298
Osobe koje vas prate
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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12 h |
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I’ve been to Kansas City and I still make that mistake. But then I’m not the President of the United States of America.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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14 h |
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Another one. In 2017, reporters discovered that Trump had fake Time magazine covers featuring Himself on display in his golf clubs. pbs.org/weta/washingto… That makes this image, circulating among Trump's fans, even more gobsmacking. pic.twitter.com/fEBj7JHLEd
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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14 h |
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An illustration of the epistemological black hole we are being sucked into: A passionate Trumpian rails against "fake news" ... with a cartoon which was altered to replace GOP elephants with Democratic donkeys. pic.twitter.com/pyVxaJFcD9
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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17 h |
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Please, let's not compare what an authoritarian state does in an emergency with what can be done in a free country with appropriate safeguards (like environmental reviews and safety standards) in ordinary circumstances. They're apples and hand grenades. twitter.com/chrisnelder/st…
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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17 h |
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Right. “You can make money with this” always gets attention. But how the markets work, and what that means about judgement in general? I’m pretty confident the people who already get it will get it; those who don’t, won’t.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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17 h |
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In my experience, that would only convince the people who don’t need to be convinced.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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17 h |
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Your undeniably right. Time is precious to everyone. You must give equal value for every minute you ask for. Prattling on about your weekend or whatever isn't delightful whimsy. It's a statement that the listener's time isn't valuable.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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17 h |
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This misunderstanding, and rejection, is not universal, of course. People can and do grasp how probability works and accept its implications, even the uncomfortable stuff. Not coincidentally, those people tend to be much better forecasters. (See Superforecasting, with @PTetlock)
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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18 h |
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I've beaten this horse raw and I'm pretty sure it's dead. Most people not only don't understand how to judge probabilistic forecasts, they scoff and snicker when it's explained. The reason? Treated seriously, probability leads to a lot of "we can't be sure." And people hate that.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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18 h |
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It's ironic that this profile of @NateSilver538 -- which discusses Silver's complain that his work is misunderstood -- opens with a textbook example of how people misunderstand and misjudge probabilistic forecasts. twitter.com/TheAtlantic/st…
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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18 h |
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Um, I was just a (reasonable) comment on your (reasonable) comment. Why respond with such snark?
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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19 h |
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Ok. Very true. And much more can be done with urban agriculture and tech to come.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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19 h |
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Ugh. Polysyllabic prattle. (But of course my lack of respect for their different ways of knowing undoubtedly demonstrates I am a minion of the patriarchy offended by their autonomy, just like some precedent in the 18th century, which showed... etc, ad nauseam.)
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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3. velj |
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Both. But an enormous amount of what is now forest was farmland.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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3. velj |
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Same here, also in northern Ontario. The school gave each kid an orange at Christmas and it was a very big deal.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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3. velj |
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It’s a huge topic. But this is a start: amazon.ca/Locavores-Dile…’s&qid=1580686066&sr=8-2
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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3. velj |
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Could certainly contribute. But with a much greater population, and growing? It would take truly unfathomable technological leaps and reforms.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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2. velj |
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No. I am repeating the history that is the basis for my claim, which, I suspect, most people don’t know. If you do, super.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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2. velj |
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That’s the point. Ag shifted to higher-productivity land.
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Dan Gardner
@dgardner
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2. velj |
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To see for yourself, look at any random photo of the New England countryside circa 1900. Mostly agriculture. And today? Mostly forest.
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