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David Manheim
@
davidmanheim
Israel
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Research and policy for making unlikely global catastrophes even less likely.
@superforecaster. Previously @RANDCorporation, @PardeeRAND, @RMS
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27.634
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1.293
Pratim
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2.997
Osobe koje vas prate
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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17 h |
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I know a few Republicans who are clear that they'd vote for Yang - and only Yang - over Trump. And a portion of Sanders supporters would vote for, say, Warren but not Yang or Bloomberg. (Otherwise they'll stay home, or vote Green, etc.)
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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17 h |
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Got a revise and resubmit with a note that the review process is *single* blind, so I need to include our names on the revised paper.
I could say that it seems shady and counter to peer review best practice - but the reviewers might look up my Twitter account, so I won't.
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Peter Schryvers
@PeterSchryvers
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3. velj |
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When I wrote Bad Data, I had an inkling of the deeper motivations behind metrics and why they often fail us. I stumbled upon this article by @davidmanheim and it gave a lot of clarity to my ideas. Read it.
Goodhart's Law and Why Measurement is Hard ribbonfarm.com/2016/06/09/goo…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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But for 538 at least, it is public. twitter.com/davidmanheim/s…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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I tried putting some of that data together for a couple places, but it's a bit of a pain. (I'm still on twitter, but I never put the data together. Priorities!) twitter.com/davidmanheim/s…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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Yes, if only in that they don't have a house edge and the probabilities will sum to 1. They also arguably have larger incentives. That is, to most people involved the reputation is worth more than the paltry amounts these markets let you trade.
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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Yes, because there is a house edge - finding implied probabilities means prices must be renormalized to account for the difference.
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L. Amber O'Hearn
@ambimorph
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18. lip |
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Some very interesting work on Goodhart-like effects in optimisation, multiparty dynamics, and incentive engineering. twitter.com/davidmanheim/s…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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Evidently, conditional probabilities are hard.
These prediction markets are not worth trusting, especially for low probabilities or precise estimates. (via @HowieLempel)
Also, the Yang number is far less egregious than Hillary at... 6%?!?
cc: @superforecaster, @PTetlock pic.twitter.com/dx5ho65SsY
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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Plausible, but far less likely than it increasing conflict because isolation wouldn't actually reduce conflict over any resources that get traded, and externalities are far too often global.
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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Even assuming you're right, you need to look at overall risk, not a narrative that supports your idea. If you have a 5% reduction in the low risk of dystopia but at 10% increase in the fairly high chance of nuclear war, we're much worse off.
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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This is actually a huge underestimate, in one sense - H1N1 didn't go away, and is currently a seasonal influenza strain accounting for ~50% of 2019-2020 flu cases.
Fairly mild but scary novel diseases don't usually go away, they become routine, are endemic, and get forgotten. twitter.com/JeffLadish/sta…
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Andrew Thompson
@QW5kcmV3
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1. velj |
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A great example would be the following article discussing a "burned" UAC bypass. It was disclosed 19 February 2019. It's now included in TRICKBOT. Disclosure does not actually equate to loss of utility, especially in the category of threats most face.
blog.morphisec.com/trickbot-uses-…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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But why are you worried about within-region, French/German tensions, instead of the current more worrying global tensions, like Chinese/Russia/US or US/EU/Africa tensions?
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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2. velj |
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This is they key point we disagree about. You, I think, believe that "regionalizing the world" is a good/reasonable idea anyways. And I think any such move would be bad, as well as far more expensive and dangerous in other ways than any benefit to reducing future disease spread.
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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1. velj |
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I'm guessing that when you say "channel our inner Taleb," you don't mean being blind to our own biases while mocking other people for theirs, and blocking anyone who says anything you don't like on twitter... ;)
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Keller Scholl
@KellerScholl
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1. velj |
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Of course not: with planes, we have rigorous safety requirements. "This was no accident: it could have been prevented by following the safety rules" is a thing that a person can reasonably say about airplanes. We have designed spaces with a built in homicide rate from drivers. twitter.com/A_W_Gordon/sta…
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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1. velj |
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I heard exactly this point brought up by Chertoff to explain why they didn't try Israeli-style behavioral security checks. He said that giving such high levels of discretion to TSA personnel would be a disaster.
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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1. velj |
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And the actually rapid ones, which doesn't require specialized equipment or training to perform and/or interpret, come much later. (And as rapid strep tests show, are still easy to screw up.)
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David Manheim
@davidmanheim
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1. velj |
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A few hours, *given lab equipment and personnel availability*
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