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Christopher Clary
Assistant Professor of Political Science, University at Albany
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Christopher Clary 17h
“I think Sydney, with all due respect, you don’t understand a word that I’m saying.” This is a funny interview.
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Christopher Clary 21h
This is a nice concrete example of a phenomenon I worry about with India and Pakistan starting to develop sea-based nuclear weapons.
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Christopher Clary May 18
Replying to @clary_co
Anyway, I’d encourage folks to read the critique but also read our original!
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Christopher Clary May 18
Replying to @clary_co
More importantly, the critique has to assume that statements by former Indian officials saying NFU might be a bad idea and preemption might be a good idea have no evidentiary value. Statements + capability + incentives= temptation, we argue. 4/5
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Christopher Clary May 18
Replying to @clary_co
Another NFU state, China, did consciously strangle ballistic missile development for a long time. So it’s not unheard of. But just as importantly Lt Gen Nagal said recently at Stimson that all major developments have been taken with conscious political authorization. 3/5
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Christopher Clary May 18
Replying to @clary_co
The critique basically hinges on the argument that missile modernization can be explained fully by technological determinism. India would have to consciously strangle developments, it argues, and that would be contrary to historical norms. 2/5
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Christopher Clary May 18
I’d like to thank for hosting this interesting critique of our article. You should read it. A few rejoinders, though: (1/5)
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Christopher Clary May 17
So Modi thought to himself, "Didn't Meneghini et al. (1986) show that signal attenuation by cloud and precipitation is a serious problem associated with airborne or spaceborne millimetre wave operation?" He overruled the IAF concerns then and there.
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Christopher Clary May 17
And a nice little swerve into a nuclear optimist take on the India-Pakistan relationship by our Brazilian friend.
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Christopher Clary May 17
Replying to @JimGoldgeier
It seems quite clear it would have kept Trump's actual grandfather out:
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Christopher Clary May 17
Replying to @JJSchroden @arzandc
That doesn't mean your analysis of the US logic is incorrect, however. In any event, thanks for a provocative piece.
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Christopher Clary May 17
Replying to @JJSchroden @arzandc
I find myself going back to Clausewitz: “If the enemy is to be coerced... the hardships of that situation must not of course be merely transient—at least not in appearance. Otherwise the enemy would not give in but would wait for things to improve.”
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Christopher Clary May 17
Replying to @shifrinson
Fearon has a related point in his critique of Glaser's RTIP. The section called "Security is a Means, and All States are Somewhat Greedy," in
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Christopher Clary May 17
This is an interesting argument. But if insurgents would have to negotiate in good faith if you killed enough of them, then the whole population-security theory of counterinsurgency would probably be wrong all the time, & enemy KIA would probably be a good metric all the time.
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Christopher Clary May 17
This is the key question.
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Christopher Clary May 17
“The idea that all of our sad little lives are hostage to the vanity of this one lunatic is just incredible.” takes a break from some excellent Iran nuclear analysis with to take in the Trumpian big picture.
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Christopher Clary May 16
Replying to @itaisher
Oh, it’s real.
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Christopher Clary May 16
My toddler’s daycare next year requires you to pay tuition up front and then insure yourself in case you withdraw. But the caveats of what is uninsured are a bit of a trip.
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Christopher Clary May 16
I might have to start assigning articles about this whole stupid Iran episode during my “spiral model” week.
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Christopher Clary retweeted
𝚊𝚕𝚢𝚜𝚜𝚊 𝚊𝚢𝚛𝚎𝚜 May 16
Quite a statement from Chairman & Asia Subcommittee Democrats to Trump: “Appoint an Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asia”
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