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Carl Baker
Stats researcher for : mostly NHS/health, tech & geography. Personal tweets on stats, dataviz, maps & games.
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Carl Baker 3h
Replying to @nf032
Right - it was the timing, at the same time as spikes in uni towns, that I thought was interesting.
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Carl Baker 3h
Replying to @nf032
Here's Tunbridge Wells as requested by It has one of the lowest rates in the country now. Maybe a bit surprising to see a large early October spike among 15-24s in a non-university town?
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Carl Baker retweeted
Colin Angus 4h
Interesting new figures from on COVID-19 case rates in school/university age groups (mind the changing scales). Highest rates among students, particularly freshers, but now falling. Rates still rising fast in primary and secondary school ages.
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Carl Baker 4h
Updated population breakdown for England's tiers is as follows: Tier 3 (Very High): 8.7 million (15.4% of population) Tier 2 (High): 23.9 million (42.5%) Tier 1 (Medium): 23.7 million (42.0%) Today's changes move about 3.5 million people into Tier 2.
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Carl Baker 4h
Replying to @HELENSTATHAM2
Not sure I'm afraid - haven't had a chance to look at the age data for Bristol. People were saying last week that the outbreak was dominated by students, but numbers were lower then
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Carl Baker 4h
Tier 2 update: based on the announcements, here's an updated graphic showing which areas are moving into Tier 2 from Saturday (those crossed off the list). Bristol, Blaby, Lincoln, Selby and Carlisle will now be the Tier 1 areas with the highest rates.
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Carl Baker 6h
Replying to @dan_grey
The age composition of cases is changing but no large move in older age groups yet. Note that There are only 5,618 people aged 80+ in Oxford, hence the wide fluctuation in that line (it amounts to 5 weekly cases at the max on 8th-11th Oct).
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Carl Baker 7h
Replying to @carlbaker
Oxford announces move to Tier 2. Most recent rate 137 per 100k - below all 58 areas on the graphic above, and below a further 8 areas too.
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Carl Baker 7h
Data is published for 5-year age groups, so we can break down 15-19 and 20-24 year olds. In the couple of weeks in Brighton & Hove, the incidence rate for 15-19s was over double 20-24s.
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Carl Baker 7h
Hi Rich, thanks for flagging. Yes, I'm calculating age-specific rates based on 2019 mid-year population estimates. Latest PHE cases data for w/e 22nd shows 8 cases among 65-79 and 4 among 80+ (rates of 29 and 35 per 100,000 respectively in those age groups).
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Carl Baker 9h
Replying to @nf032
Only just saw this, sorry - will do a TW version later today.
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Carl Baker 9h
Replying to @Helen_Hotspur
Here's Brighton and Hove, as requested by - with the 15-24 age bracket separated. Cases much more dominated by young people here - but rates in other working age people beginning to rise faster now.
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Carl Baker 10h
Replying to @carlbaker
There have been a bunch of press rumours and seemingly-confirmed plans for some areas on this list to move up to Tier 2 this week, but little official confirmation yet - perhaps we'll hear today.
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Carl Baker 10h
Replying to @carlbaker
Big changes if we compare this map/table with a week earlier (w/e 17th): ▶️none of the areas shown had weekly rates over 300 per 100,000 ▶️4 of the areas shown had rates above 200 ▶️19 had rates between 150 and 200 ▶️the other 35 had rates below 150, including 8 below 100
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Carl Baker 11h
Replying to @carlbaker
There were only three additions to tier 2 last week, and their rates back then were as follows: Coventry 182 Stoke-on-Trent 173 Slough 141 Comparing that with the map/table above suggests we *might* see a larger expansion of Tier 2 this week?
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Carl Baker 11h
New map showing the highest covid-19 rates in English Tier 1 areas, as we wait to hear how Tier 2 will be expanded this week. There are now 58 Tier 1 areas with weekly rates above 150 per 100k, including 8 with rates above 300. The current average for England as a whole is 224.
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Carl Baker retweeted
Colin Angus 23h
I accidentally made another app. This one lets you explore the new age-specific case data at Lower Tier Local Authority level in England that released yesterday. (it takes a while to load up as it's scraping the latest case data)
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Carl Baker Oct 28
Replying to @Anne_Other1
Sadly we don't have full data on testing by local authority - just Pillar 2. And what we do have isn't broken down by age. I did check a couple of the areas on my charts and they saw overall increases in Pillar 2 testing while student cases were falling.
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Carl Baker Oct 28
There are a *lot* of "city/region/county on the brink of Tier 2" stories floating around this week. Few concrete plans announced, and clear how many of them will actually come to pass, but quite different from last week.
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Carl Baker Oct 28
Replying to @exseacatwoman
I have seen those reports - I'm not sure we know yet what the extent of this was, how much it affected the data, and whether it will be/was revised in the PHE data. Maybe we'll find out more at some point.
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