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Bob Henson
If the latest NHC forecast comes to pass, will be the only hurricane on record to make a Cat 4 U.S. landfall so far north. The dramatic slowing on Friday, and the implied risk of extreme rainfall, is the other very concerning detail on this map.
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Christopher Lee Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
Now that all the models have started the trend of honing in on the Carolinas, the expected chances for Florida have been reduced greatly? Is there an off shoot chance the blocking ridge can keep Flo moving west more than models predict, and how much of a chance if so?
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bradsherry Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
Hazel. Charleston South Carolina cat 4
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Bob Henson Sep 9
Replying to @DJTopherLee
The more the models converge on NC, the lower the odds for major impacts in Florida. Keep in mind that hurricanes stray outside the forecast cone in about one out of three cases at each time step.
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bradsherry Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
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Met. Eclipse Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
1938 is likely a 4 on LI. I’ve seen enough evidence for it but NHCs reanalysis is a one shop stop method for all which is problematic pre Satellite/Radar. See Jarvinen study for wind speed based on surge. Also F-3 wind damage on E. LI which translates to sustained cat.4 winds.
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Met. Eclipse Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
I don’t want to hear that cat.4s don’t happen at that latitude because that’s a myth. See Esther 1961 and some others I can dig up as well.
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Brent shavnore Sep 9
Shots fired!
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Met. Eclipse Sep 9
No shots fired. Relax 😆
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Bob Henson Sep 9
Replying to @TARCweather
Yes, of course. I was discussing Cat 4s at landfall, not all Cat 4s. Note my wording: "the only hurricane on record to make a Cat 4 U.S. landfall so far north." Even so, not many hurricanes have produced 150-mph winds north of 30°N, as currently forecast by NHC.
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Met. Eclipse Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
Indeed! I think there’s a good chance that Florence sets some records.
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Daniel Swain Sep 9
That's just not the case in this instance, unfortunately. Confidence in the intensity and track forecasts is unusually high for this particular storm, even several days out. Odds that this won't be an extremely serious landfalling storm are quite low.
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emveejay Sep 9
How is Puerto Rico doing after Maria?
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Bob Henson Sep 9
Exactly. There are always brackets of greater or lesser confidence, but in this case, the brackets are narrow and getting narrower over time.
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Kees van der Leun Sep 9
Replying to @bhensonweather
Thx; didn't know that. What's the anomaly in sea surface temperatures off the NC coast?
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Name cannot be blank Sep 10
"South" Carolina is "south" of "North" Carolina...
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Craig Whitlock Sep 10
Replying to @bhensonweather
Hurricane Hazel was a Category 4 storm when it struck the NC coast in 1954, according to National Weather Service.
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Ron Wagner Sep 10
North Carolina is north of Charleston, which is in South Carolina. Seriously, dude.
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You Should Have Voted Gary Sep 10
Replying to @bhensonweather
Well, the only Category 4 storm since those categories were created, and since good records were kept (so <100 years). There's a good chance the Great Colonial Hurricane of 1635, among others, were Category 3 or 4 even further North.
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You Should Have Voted Gary Sep 10
Replying to @bhensonweather
If this storm hit today, it would be by far the worst natural disaster in American history.
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