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Rob Bowron
Data scientist (Econometrician), Wyomingite, modeler of Beta_Rank. Part of , . Math is all around us.
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Rob Bowron 5h
Given Utah's roster lots of people, including me, had '19 circled for them since that is when their roster would mature all at once. CFB is A LOT more cyclical performance wise for most programs; they rise and fall as the roster matures. Fans often think of progress as linear.
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Rob Bowron 5h
USC has the tougher schedule than Utah or ASU so some bad luck for the Trojans and it's wide open, but I am way more bearish on this '20 Sun Devil team. They look like a year or two away.
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Rob Bowron 5h
Do I think Utah can develop talent? Yes, but it's a different cycle for programs like Utah than Alabama. Very few programs just replace returning production without missing a beat. Utah is #130 out of 130 in returning production.
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Rob Bowron 5h
The projection model evaluates all 130 teams on the same factors, but it doesn't see everything. It is a very good place to start with teams and then factor in what you know that the model does not.
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Rob Bowron 5h
Well we agree on Utah taking a step back due to lack of returning production, but that is about it.
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Rob Bowron 6h
Pretty excited to get into the #81-90 range of Beta_Rank next week. There are six Power 5 programs projected there including 3 from the Pac-12 South.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Sharp College Football 6h
Replying to @Sharp_CFB
Marshall was defense first squad in '19, though it's not a huge split. The offense was really interesting being so inefficient at completing drives and reliant on Explosive Drives.
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Rob Bowron 6h
Replying to @JFurKSL
At least it ended up in a good spot.
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Rob Bowron 6h
Slovis is so damn good.
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Rob Bowron 6h
Replying to @beta_rank_fb
It's just a symmetrical difference from the mean problem that they can't solve because their ego is giving them a false sense of the distribution.
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Rob Bowron 6h
Replying to @beta_rank_fb
In my head I always flip the problem when somebody is complaining that some expert just thinks they are smarter than everyone else. The real problem is usually that the speaker thinks they are just as smart as everyone else.
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Rob Bowron 6h
One of my favorite forms of self-serving dumb is "The experts get stuff wrong" person. Do experts get stuff wrong in their field? You bet. Are you committing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy in selecting a biased sample to focus on? You better believe it.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
12 Pac Radio 6h
Latest 12 Pac Radio Podcast: Ranking the Wide Receiving Corps:
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Florian Krammer 8h
I guess somebody is lonely in quarantine. Not sure why my tweet about the COVID19 situation in Austria was targeted by this. But anyways, as a reminder, old men have the highest risk for dying from COVID19. Better stay lonely for a while, Albert!
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Rob Bowron retweeted
parker Apr 2
Using 's VGR+ to look ahead to which teams might surprise in 2020. Here's Quarterback Rating vs Defensive rating for all of FBS. Teams to (maybe) watch in 2020: South Carolina, North Carolina, Tenn, FSU, Arizona State, Texas, Texas A&M, UCLA, Ole Miss, VaTech.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Sharp College Football 8h
Beta_Rank 2020 Projections #91 Marshall 2019 Beta_Rank: #76 '19 Offense: #93 '19 Defense: #61 '19 Special Teams: #59 Coach & Dev: #85 Return Prod: #35 Return Off: #23 Return Def: #64 2 year Recruit: #89
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Sharp College Football 10h
Replying to @Sharp_CFB
It is not an easy schedule for the Aggies, even when you toss in the FCS game. They play both Washington schools, though Wazzu is at home, and BYU in non-con.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Sharp College Football 10h
Replying to @Sharp_CFB
The Aggies fell back to MW average against the run and dipped below against the pass, definitely a point of emphasis for them in '20.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Sharp College Football 10h
Replying to @Sharp_CFB
Utah State declined across the core 4 Beta_Rank metrics on defense. They steeply declined on Drive Efficiency and they need to find ways to get off the field, beyond just containing big plays and limiting yards per play on non explosive plays.
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Rob Bowron retweeted
Jeremy INVEST IN PUBLIC HEALTH Konyndyk 18h
Counterpoint: the ACTUAL ****ING WEBSITE FOR THE ACTUAL ***ING STRATEGIC NATIONAL ****ING STOCKPILE. "When state, local, tribal, and territorial responders request federal assistance...the stockpile ensures the right medicines and supplies get to those who need them most" FFS
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