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Alex Beal 🆎
@
beala
Colorado, USA
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scala tooling at @stripe. ex-@TwitterEng. interested in effective altruism, economics, and philosophy.
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11.425
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722
Pratim
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1.048
Osobe koje vas prate
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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11 h |
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Good point. Definitely lots of assumptions in this study that don't apply to everyone.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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16 h |
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Aw thanks! And welcome to Stripe @jhscott !
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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20 h |
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Resources I’ve been looking at:
Johns Hopkins Tracker: gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashbo…
WHO Situation Report: who.int/emergencies/di…
European CDC: ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographica…
Twitter Accounts: @HelenBranswell @amyyqin
Links in my earlier thread: twitter.com/beala/status/1…
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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21 h |
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If the studies I linked to earlier are correct, and the number of confirmed cases is 10%-20% of the total, it seems that we’re quickly approaching the median estimate.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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21 h |
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Metaculus’s prediction of the # of estimated nCoV cases before 2021 has a median of 0.5m, but this is a bit misleading because it has a very fat tail. This seems reasonable for a scenario that doesn’t really have a middle ground. At some point containment seems unlikely. pic.twitter.com/y0WktIOO2G
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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22 h |
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Packaging is a big contributor, but everyone driving around in their cars is worse. From the study linked above: pic.twitter.com/wjBKb45Grt
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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6. velj |
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Shadow Master âś… pic.twitter.com/1Hbkl3VA4E
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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This is a good discussion on nCoV, and forecasting in general. Their recommendation is to have 2 weeks of food and a kit with essentials like basic medicine and a radio. It's cheap and useful in many scenarios, whether or not nCoV spreads. twitter.com/80000Hours/sta…
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Yup sorry I totally misunderstood the tweet. Thanks for getting back to me tho!
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Totally. At the end of the day, the product has to get from the factory to either a distribution center or a brick and mortar store. Doesn't seem like the store is obviously better.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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What about for food where the product itself can be grown locally? "Eating local" probably doesn't have a big impact. twitter.com/_hannahritchie… twitter.com/_HannahRitchie…
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Turns out my hunch is actually pretty plausible. Shopping online may actually be more efficient. ctl.mit.edu/pub/thesis/env… pic.twitter.com/0lcU0Q50hH
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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I've been starting to suspect that the carbon impact of ordering online is not so bad. Consider: Is everyone getting in their car really more efficient than, say, Amazon's distribution network? What about when you have to drive from store to store looking for what you want?
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Waxing philosophical a bit: I do worry about the possibility of a black swan virus that could take out a significant proportion of humanity. I don't think nCoV is it, but it would be swell if we could get vaccine development time down below a year.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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I've been trying to be less vague about my predictions, so I'll put a number on it. I think there's a 50% chance there will be 0.5m to 1m cases before 2021. And I give 25% to both tails.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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This means the actual mortality rate is likely much lower than the initial reports of 2% to 3%. This makes me less worried about the health impact than I initially was. That said, even something as mild as the flu is no picnic in the aggregate.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Another nowcast published on the 31st that lines up with the report in the Lancet. Both say it's likely much more widespread than the official number of confirmed cases. systems.jhu.edu/research/publi… pic.twitter.com/wCSn1hyRjc
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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Ah never mind. You're saying there are a total of 100-200 cases outside China, not that there are 100-200 new cases today. Got it.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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5. velj |
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I'm curious where you're getting these updates. It doesn't seem to line up with the European CDCs data: ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographica… Only 6 or 7 new cases outside China today according to that graph.
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Alex Beal 🆎
@beala
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4. velj |
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Reminds me of "The Soul Of A New Machine," but not quite it.
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