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Alex Beal 🆎
scala tooling at . ex-. interested in effective altruism, economics, and philosophy.
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Alex Beal 🆎 11 h
Good point. Definitely lots of assumptions in this study that don't apply to everyone.
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Alex Beal 🆎 16 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @NathanLubchenco @jhscott i 3 ostali
Aw thanks! And welcome to Stripe !
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Alex Beal 🆎 20 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @HelenBranswell @amyyqin
Resources I’ve been looking at: Johns Hopkins Tracker: WHO Situation Report: European CDC: Twitter Accounts: Links in my earlier thread:
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Alex Beal 🆎 21 h
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
If the studies I linked to earlier are correct, and the number of confirmed cases is 10%-20% of the total, it seems that we’re quickly approaching the median estimate.
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Alex Beal 🆎 21 h
Metaculus’s prediction of the # of estimated nCoV cases before 2021 has a median of 0.5m, but this is a bit misleading because it has a very fat tail. This seems reasonable for a scenario that doesn’t really have a middle ground. At some point containment seems unlikely.
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Alex Beal 🆎 22 h
Packaging is a big contributor, but everyone driving around in their cars is worse. From the study linked above:
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Alex Beal 🆎 6. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @somethingintern
Shadow Master âś…
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
This is a good discussion on nCoV, and forecasting in general. Their recommendation is to have 2 weeks of food and a kit with essentials like basic medicine and a radio. It's cheap and useful in many scenarios, whether or not nCoV spreads.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @HelenBranswell
Yup sorry I totally misunderstood the tweet. Thanks for getting back to me tho!
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @somethingintern
Totally. At the end of the day, the product has to get from the factory to either a distribution center or a brick and mortar store. Doesn't seem like the store is obviously better.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
What about for food where the product itself can be grown locally? "Eating local" probably doesn't have a big impact.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
Turns out my hunch is actually pretty plausible. Shopping online may actually be more efficient.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
I've been starting to suspect that the carbon impact of ordering online is not so bad. Consider: Is everyone getting in their car really more efficient than, say, Amazon's distribution network? What about when you have to drive from store to store looking for what you want?
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
Waxing philosophical a bit: I do worry about the possibility of a black swan virus that could take out a significant proportion of humanity. I don't think nCoV is it, but it would be swell if we could get vaccine development time down below a year.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
I've been trying to be less vague about my predictions, so I'll put a number on it. I think there's a 50% chance there will be 0.5m to 1m cases before 2021. And I give 25% to both tails.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
This means the actual mortality rate is likely much lower than the initial reports of 2% to 3%. This makes me less worried about the health impact than I initially was. That said, even something as mild as the flu is no picnic in the aggregate.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @beala
Another nowcast published on the 31st that lines up with the report in the Lancet. Both say it's likely much more widespread than the official number of confirmed cases.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @HelenBranswell
Ah never mind. You're saying there are a total of 100-200 cases outside China, not that there are 100-200 new cases today. Got it.
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Alex Beal 🆎 5. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @HelenBranswell
I'm curious where you're getting these updates. It doesn't seem to line up with the European CDCs data: Only 6 or 7 new cases outside China today according to that graph.
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Alex Beal 🆎 4. velj
Odgovor korisniku/ci @fogus
Reminds me of "The Soul Of A New Machine," but not quite it.
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